Sat, Nov 11 2023
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Week 11
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🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Bowling Green, KY
·
Turf
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22,113 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,195 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
New Mexico State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
New Mexico State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -4.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2023 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | New Mexico State vs Massachusetts | -7.0L30–41 | 45.5 | L30–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/2 | New Mexico State vs Western Illinois | -21.0W58–21 | 55.0 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +9.0L17–33 | 54.5 | L17–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | New Mexico State at New Mexico | +2.5W27–17 | 52.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | New Mexico State at Hawai'i | +4.0L17–20 | 54.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/4 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | -6.5W34–17 | 49.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/11 | New Mexico State vs Sam Houston | -4.5W27–13 | 43.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/18 | New Mexico State at UTEP | -3.0W28–7 | 48.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/24 | New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech | +3.0W27–24 | 55.0 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee | -3.0W13–7 | 55.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | New Mexico State at Western Kentucky | +4.5W38–29 | 55.5 | W38–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | New Mexico State at Auburn | +25.5W31–10 | 48.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State | -2.0W20–17 | 48.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/1 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +10.5L35–49 | 54.0 | L35–49 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | New Mexico State vs Fresno State | -3.0L10–37 | 52.5 | L10–37 | U | N |
Western Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Western Kentucky vs South Florida | -13.5W41–24 | 71.5 | W41–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian | -41.5W52–22 | 64.5 | W52–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Western Kentucky at Ohio State | +29.5L10–63 | 65.0 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Western Kentucky at Troy | +3.5L24–27 | 57.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/28 | Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee | -6.5W31–10 | 61.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/5 | Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech | -6.0W35–28 | 59.0 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | -7.5L17–20 | 60.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Tue 10/24 | Western Kentucky vs Liberty | +4.0L29–42 | 61.5 | L29–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Western Kentucky at UTEP | -9.5W21–13 | 54.5 | W21–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -4.5L29–38 | 55.5 | L29–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston | -12.5W28–23 | 52.0 | W28–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Western Kentucky at Florida International | -11.5W41–28 | 54.0 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/18 | Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion | +4.0W38–35 | 49.0 | W38–35 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +0.36
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +2.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico State
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
New Mexico State
38.4 — 39.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
New Mexico State won by 9
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on New Mexico State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
9–8 (53%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 2
#1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
34–22 (61%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Drew Hollingshead
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓