Old Dominion at Marshall Week 5 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at Marshall Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 30 2023 · Week 5 · 🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium Huntington, WV · Turf · 38,019 cap
Old Dominion✈ 350 miSame TZ
35 41
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
22
Marshall
27
P&R Line Marshall -4.5
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Marshall -14.5 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
Marshall has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Marshall entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Marshall wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Marshall wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Marshall -14.5
O/U 47.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Marshall 2nd straight Home Game
Old Dominion 2023 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+16.0L17–3648.0L17–36ON
Sat 9/9Old Dominion vs Louisiana+6.0W38–3151.0W38–31OY
Sat 9/16Old Dominion vs Wake Forest+13.5L24–2760.0L24–27UY
Sat 9/23Old Dominion vs East Texas A&M-18.5
Sat 9/30Old Dominion at Marshall+14.5L35–4147.0L35–41OY
Sat 10/7Old Dominion at Southern Miss+3.0W17–1356.5W17–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Old Dominion vs App State+6.0W28–2156.0W28–21UY
Sat 10/28Old Dominion at James Madison+19.5L27–3048.0L27–30OY
Sat 11/4Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina+1.0L24–2851.0L24–28ON
Sat 11/11Old Dominion at Liberty+13.5L10–3858.5L10–38UN
Sat 11/18Old Dominion at Georgia Southern+4.5W20–1761.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/25Old Dominion vs Georgia State-2.0W25–2449.5W25–24UN
Mon 12/18Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky-4.0L35–3849.0L35–38ON
Marshall 2023 Schedule
Marshall's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Marshall vs UAlbany-22.0W21–1747.5W21–17UN
Sat 9/9Marshall at East Carolina-3.0W31–1343.5W31–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Marshall vs Virginia Tech-5.5W24–1741.5W24–17UY
Sat 9/30Marshall vs Old Dominion-14.5W41–3547.0W41–35ON
Sat 10/7Marshall at NC State+6.5L41–4844.0L41–48ON
Sat 10/14Marshall at Georgia State+2.0L24–4153.5L24–41ON
Thu 10/19Marshall vs James Madison+5.0L9–2049.0L9–20UN
Sat 10/28Marshall at Coastal Carolina-3.5L6–3447.0L6–34UN
Sat 11/4Marshall at App State+3.0L9–3157.5L9–31UN
Sat 11/11Marshall vs Georgia Southern+1.5W38–3356.5W38–33OY
Sat 11/18Marshall at South Alabama+10.5L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/25Marshall vs Arkansas State-2.0W35–2154.0W35–21OY
Tue 12/19Marshall vs UTSA+7.0L17–3547.0L17–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Old Dominion PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion #102
+0.264
Marshall #101
+0.260
Old Dominion Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #112
+0.351
Marshall #97
+0.497
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #56
0.167
Marshall #27
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #117
+6.294
Marshall #128
+6.196
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #109
+0.763
Marshall #108
+0.828
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #80
70.9
Marshall #105
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Old Dominion Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
0.3
Marshall
-3.1
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
14.4
Marshall
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.2
Marshall
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Marshall Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #77
0.33
Marshall #71
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #23
1.67
Marshall #73
0.50
Marshall +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Marshall Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
39.9
Marshall #1
43.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #69
32.4
Marshall #109
28.1
Marshall +3.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Old Dominion
41.4 — 43.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Marshall won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Marshall, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
10–18 (36%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
18–10 (64%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Clint Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Jason Semore Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself