Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion Week 10 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 4 2023 · Week 10 · 🏟 Foreman Field Norfolk, VA · Turf · 20,118 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 262 miSame TZ
28 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
27
Old Dominion
24
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -3.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -1 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -1
O/U 51.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Coastal Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2023 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Coastal Carolina at UCLA+15.5L13–2766.5L13–27UY
Sat 9/9Coastal Carolina vs Jacksonville State-13.5W30–1661.0W30–16UY
Sat 9/16Coastal Carolina vs Duquesne-35.0W66–755.5W66–7OY
Thu 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-4.5L17–3062.5L17–30UN
Sat 9/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern+6.0L28–3867.5L28–38UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/10Coastal Carolina at App State+4.5W27–2459.0W27–24UY
Sat 10/21Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State-8.5W27–1759.0W27–17UY
Sat 10/28Coastal Carolina vs Marshall+3.5W34–647.0W34–6UY
Sat 11/4Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion-1.0W28–2451.0W28–24OY
Sat 11/11Coastal Carolina vs Texas State+2.5W31–2355.5W31–23UY
Sat 11/18Coastal Carolina at Army-1.5L21–2840.5L21–28ON
Sat 11/25Coastal Carolina vs James Madison+9.5L14–5650.5L14–56ON
Sat 12/23Coastal Carolina vs San José State+7.5W24–1448.0W24–14UY
Old Dominion 2023 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+16.0L17–3648.0L17–36ON
Sat 9/9Old Dominion vs Louisiana+6.0W38–3151.0W38–31OY
Sat 9/16Old Dominion vs Wake Forest+13.5L24–2760.0L24–27UY
Sat 9/23Old Dominion vs East Texas A&M-18.5
Sat 9/30Old Dominion at Marshall+14.5L35–4147.0L35–41OY
Sat 10/7Old Dominion at Southern Miss+3.0W17–1356.5W17–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Old Dominion vs App State+6.0W28–2156.0W28–21UY
Sat 10/28Old Dominion at James Madison+19.5L27–3048.0L27–30OY
Sat 11/4Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina+1.0L24–2851.0L24–28ON
Sat 11/11Old Dominion at Liberty+13.5L10–3858.5L10–38UN
Sat 11/18Old Dominion at Georgia Southern+4.5W20–1761.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/25Old Dominion vs Georgia State-2.0W25–2449.5W25–24UN
Mon 12/18Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky-4.0L35–3849.0L35–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina #53
+0.343
Old Dominion #102
+0.290
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #32
+0.678
Old Dominion #112
+0.279
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #104
0.147
Old Dominion #56
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Old Dominion Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #99
+6.944
Old Dominion #117
+6.918
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #75
+0.856
Old Dominion #109
+0.823
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #118
72.6
Old Dominion #80
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Old Dominion Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Old Dominion
0.3
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Old Dominion
14.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Old Dominion
14.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #84
0.86
Old Dominion #77
0.71
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #56
0.71
Old Dominion #23
0.86
Coastal Carolina +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
55.6
Old Dominion #1
36.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #65
31.0
Old Dominion #69
37.8
Coastal Carolina +19.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 1 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
10–18 (36%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself