Sat, Nov 4 2023
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego, CA
·
Turf
·
35,000 cap
Utah State✈ 684 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State,
while Game Control favors San Diego State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Utah State -2.0
O/U 56.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Utah State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2023 Schedule
Utah State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Utah State at Iowa | +24.0L14–24 | 43.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Utah State vs Idaho State | -24.0W78–28 | 61.0 | W78–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/15 | Utah State at Air Force | +9.0L21–39 | 45.5 | L21–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Utah State vs James Madison | +5.5L38–45 | 53.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Utah State at UConn | -4.0W34–33 | 50.5 | W34–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Utah State vs Colorado State | +3.0W44–24 | 62.0 | W44–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/13 | Utah State vs Fresno State | +5.5L32–37 | 56.0 | L32–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Utah State at San José State | +4.0L21–42 | 65.0 | L21–42 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Utah State at San Diego State | -2.0W32–24 | 56.5 | W32–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Utah State vs Nevada | -14.5W41–24 | 54.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Utah State vs Boise State | +5.5L10–45 | 62.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Utah State at New Mexico | -4.5W44–41 | 58.5 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Utah State vs Georgia State | -2.0L22–45 | 58.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
San Diego State 2023 Schedule
San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | San Diego State vs Ohio | -2.0W20–13 | 48.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | San Diego State vs Idaho State | -34.5W36–28 | 51.0 | W36–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | San Diego State vs UCLA | +13.0L10–35 | 49.0 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | San Diego State at Oregon State | +24.5L9–26 | 48.5 | L9–26 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | San Diego State vs Boise State | +6.5L31–34 | 46.0 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | San Diego State at Air Force | +10.5L10–49 | 43.5 | L10–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | San Diego State at Hawai'i | -6.0W41–34 | 51.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | San Diego State vs Nevada | -11.0L0–6 | 48.5 | L0–6 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | San Diego State vs Utah State | +2.0L24–32 | 56.5 | L24–32 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | San Diego State at Colorado State | +3.5L19–22 | 46.5 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | San Diego State at San José State | +16.5L13–24 | 48.5 | L13–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | San Diego State vs Fresno State | +5.5W33–18 | 47.0 | W33–18 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +0.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +6.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
18–12 (60%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kyle Cefalo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Cauthen
Yr 1
#1
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
25–14 (64%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ryan Lindley
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kurt Mattix
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓