Sat, Nov 11 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Romney Stadium
Logan, UT
·
Turf
·
25,513 cap
Nevada✈ 446 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State,
while Game Control favors Nevada.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Nevada wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Utah State -14.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2023 Schedule
Nevada's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Nevada at USC | +37.5L14–66 | 63.5 | L14–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Nevada vs Idaho | +5.5L6–33 | 51.0 | L6–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Nevada vs Kansas | +28.5L24–31 | 58.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Nevada at Texas State | +17.0L24–35 | 60.0 | L24–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Nevada at Fresno State | +25.5L9–27 | 50.5 | L9–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Nevada vs UNLV | +7.5L27–45 | 51.5 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Nevada at San Diego State | +11.0W6–0 | 48.5 | W6–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Nevada vs New Mexico | +1.0W34–24 | 50.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | -3.5L14–27 | 50.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Nevada at Utah State | +14.5L24–41 | 54.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Nevada at Colorado State | +12.5L20–30 | 45.5 | L20–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Nevada vs Wyoming | +11.0L6–42 | 42.0 | L6–42 | O | N |
Utah State 2023 Schedule
Utah State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Utah State at Iowa | +24.0L14–24 | 43.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Utah State vs Idaho State | -24.0W78–28 | 61.0 | W78–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/15 | Utah State at Air Force | +9.0L21–39 | 45.5 | L21–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Utah State vs James Madison | +5.5L38–45 | 53.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Utah State at UConn | -4.0W34–33 | 50.5 | W34–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Utah State vs Colorado State | +3.0W44–24 | 62.0 | W44–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/13 | Utah State vs Fresno State | +5.5L32–37 | 56.0 | L32–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Utah State at San José State | +4.0L21–42 | 65.0 | L21–42 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Utah State at San Diego State | -2.0W32–24 | 56.5 | W32–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Utah State vs Nevada | -14.5W41–24 | 54.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Utah State vs Boise State | +5.5L10–45 | 62.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Utah State at New Mexico | -4.5W44–41 | 58.5 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Utah State vs Georgia State | -2.0L22–45 | 58.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Nevada Edge
Nevada +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Ken Wilson #1
2–13 (13%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Derek Sage
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kwame Agyeman
Yr 2
#1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
18–12 (60%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kyle Cefalo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Cauthen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓