Sun, Sep 10 2023
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Week 2
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🏟 Romney Stadium
Logan, UT
·
Turf
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25,513 cap
Idaho State✈ 83 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Utah State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Utah State -24
O/U 61.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Idaho State 2023 Schedule
Idaho State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Idaho State at San Diego State | +34.5L28–36 | 51.0 | L28–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Idaho State at Utah State | +24.0L28–78 | 61.0 | L28–78 | O | N |
Utah State 2023 Schedule
Utah State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Utah State at Iowa | +24.0L14–24 | 43.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Utah State vs Idaho State | -24.0W78–28 | 61.0 | W78–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/15 | Utah State at Air Force | +9.0L21–39 | 45.5 | L21–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Utah State vs James Madison | +5.5L38–45 | 53.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Utah State at UConn | -4.0W34–33 | 50.5 | W34–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Utah State vs Colorado State | +3.0W44–24 | 62.0 | W44–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/13 | Utah State vs Fresno State | +5.5L32–37 | 56.0 | L32–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Utah State at San José State | +4.0L21–42 | 65.0 | L21–42 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Utah State at San Diego State | -2.0W32–24 | 56.5 | W32–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Utah State vs Nevada | -14.5W41–24 | 54.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Utah State vs Boise State | +5.5L10–45 | 62.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Utah State at New Mexico | -4.5W44–41 | 58.5 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Utah State vs Georgia State | -2.0L22–45 | 58.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho State Edge
Idaho State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +28.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓