Sat, Nov 18 2023
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Scheumann Stadium
Muncie, IN
·
Turf
·
22,500 cap
Kent State✈ 224 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kent State,
while Game Control favors Ball State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kent State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Ball State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ball State -10.5
O/U 41.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ball State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2023 Schedule
Kent State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Kent State at UCF | +35.0L6–56 | 54.0 | L6–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Kent State at Arkansas | +38.0L6–28 | 57.5 | L6–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Kent State vs Central Connecticut | -21.5W38–10 | 46.5 | W38–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Kent State at Fresno State | +27.5L10–53 | 47.5 | L10–53 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +14.0L3–23 | 51.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Kent State at Ohio | +24.5L17–42 | 45.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Kent State at Eastern Michigan | +7.0L14–28 | 40.0 | L14–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Kent State vs Buffalo | +6.5L6–24 | 44.0 | L6–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Kent State at Akron | +4.0L27–31 | 39.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/8 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | +10.5L19–49 | 41.5 | L19–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kent State at Ball State | +10.5L3–34 | 41.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Kent State vs Northern Illinois | +20.5L27–37 | 44.5 | L27–37 | O | Y |
Ball State 2023 Schedule
Ball State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Ball State at Kentucky | +25.0L14–44 | 49.0 | L14–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Ball State at Georgia | +42.0L3–45 | 52.5 | L3–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Ball State vs Indiana State | -26.0W45–7 | 45.0 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ball State vs Georgia Southern | +6.0L3–40 | 60.0 | L3–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +1.5L24–42 | 50.0 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | +2.5L10–24 | 43.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Ball State vs Toledo | +17.5L6–13 | 48.5 | L6–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Ball State vs Central Michigan | +5.0W24–17 | 42.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Ball State at Bowling Green | +4.5L21–24 | 39.5 | L21–24 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/7 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | +9.5W20–17 | 43.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Ball State vs Kent State | -10.5W34–3 | 41.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | +3.5L15–17 | 34.5 | L15–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ball State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +3.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ball State
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ball State
80.0 — 7.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ball State won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Matt Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Duggan
Yr 1
#1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
34–50 (41%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Jared Elliott
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyler Stockton
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓