Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Commonwealth Stadium
Lexington, KY
·
Turf
·
61,000 cap
Ball State✈ 159 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -25
O/U 49.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2023 Schedule
Ball State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Ball State at Kentucky | +25.0L14–44 | 49.0 | L14–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Ball State at Georgia | +42.0L3–45 | 52.5 | L3–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Ball State vs Indiana State | -26.0W45–7 | 45.0 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ball State vs Georgia Southern | +6.0L3–40 | 60.0 | L3–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +1.5L24–42 | 50.0 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | +2.5L10–24 | 43.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Ball State vs Toledo | +17.5L6–13 | 48.5 | L6–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Ball State vs Central Michigan | +5.0W24–17 | 42.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Ball State at Bowling Green | +4.5L21–24 | 39.5 | L21–24 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/7 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | +9.5W20–17 | 43.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Ball State vs Kent State | -10.5W34–3 | 41.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | +3.5L15–17 | 34.5 | L15–17 | U | Y |
Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Kentucky vs Ball State | -25.0W44–14 | 49.0 | W44–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky | -35.0W28–17 | 62.5 | W28–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Kentucky vs Akron | -25.0W35–3 | 48.5 | W35–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Kentucky at Vanderbilt | -13.5W45–28 | 50.0 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Kentucky vs Florida | -1.0W33–14 | 44.0 | W33–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Kentucky at Georgia | +14.5L13–51 | 47.0 | L13–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Kentucky vs Missouri | -1.5L21–38 | 50.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Kentucky vs Tennessee | +4.0L27–33 | 50.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Kentucky at Mississippi State | -5.5W24–3 | 44.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Kentucky vs Alabama | +10.0L21–49 | 45.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kentucky at South Carolina | +2.5L14–17 | 52.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Kentucky at Louisville | +7.5W38–31 | 47.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/29 | Kentucky vs Clemson | +3.5L35–38 | 44.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kentucky
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kentucky
71.6 — 10.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kentucky won by 30
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kentucky, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
34–50 (41%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Jared Elliott
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyler Stockton
Yr 3
#1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
69–59 (54%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Liam Coen
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓