Arkansas State at Marshall Week 13 College Football Matchup Arkansas State at Marshall Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 25 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium Huntington, WV · Turf · 38,019 cap
Arkansas State✈ 487 mi+1 hr TZ
21 35
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arkansas State
26
Marshall
29
P&R Line Marshall -3
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Marshall -2 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arkansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Marshall -2
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2023 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.0L0–7357.5L0–73ON
Sat 9/9Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.0L3–3757.0L3–37UN
Sat 9/16Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.0W31–747.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/23Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.0W44–3746.5W44–37OY
Sat 9/30Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.5W52–2855.5W52–28OY
Sat 10/7Arkansas State at Troy+15.5L3–3752.0L3–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.5L17–2759.0L17–27UN
Sat 10/28Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.0W34–2455.5W34–24OY
Sat 11/4Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.0W37–1760.0W37–17UY
Sat 11/11Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.5L14–2154.5L14–21UY
Sat 11/18Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.5W77–3159.5W77–31OY
Sat 11/25Arkansas State at Marshall+2.0L21–3554.0L21–35ON
Sat 12/23Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.5L19–2154.0L19–21UN
Marshall 2023 Schedule
Marshall's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Marshall vs UAlbany-22.0W21–1747.5W21–17UN
Sat 9/9Marshall at East Carolina-3.0W31–1343.5W31–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Marshall vs Virginia Tech-5.5W24–1741.5W24–17UY
Sat 9/30Marshall vs Old Dominion-14.5W41–3547.0W41–35ON
Sat 10/7Marshall at NC State+6.5L41–4844.0L41–48ON
Sat 10/14Marshall at Georgia State+2.0L24–4153.5L24–41ON
Thu 10/19Marshall vs James Madison+5.0L9–2049.0L9–20UN
Sat 10/28Marshall at Coastal Carolina-3.5L6–3447.0L6–34UN
Sat 11/4Marshall at App State+3.0L9–3157.5L9–31UN
Sat 11/11Marshall vs Georgia Southern+1.5W38–3356.5W38–33OY
Sat 11/18Marshall at South Alabama+10.5L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/25Marshall vs Arkansas State-2.0W35–2154.0W35–21OY
Tue 12/19Marshall vs UTSA+7.0L17–3547.0L17–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arkansas State #81
+0.300
Marshall #101
+0.380
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #83
+0.437
Marshall #97
+0.531
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #103
0.147
Marshall #27
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #114
+6.360
Marshall #128
+6.751
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #73
+0.795
Marshall #108
+0.810
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #40
69.6
Marshall #105
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arkansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arkansas State
-18.1
Marshall
-3.1
Offense Rating
Arkansas State
6.3
Marshall
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arkansas State
24.3
Marshall
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arkansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arkansas State #83
1.50
Marshall #71
0.90
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #119
1.50
Marshall #73
1.50
Arkansas State +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arkansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arkansas State #1
40.5
Marshall #1
24.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #106
44.8
Marshall #109
55.3
Arkansas State +16.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Marshall
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Marshall
88.8 — 4.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Marshall won by 14
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arkansas State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
6–21 (22%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Keith Heckendorf Yr 3 #1
DC Rob Harley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
18–10 (64%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Clint Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Jason Semore Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself