Sat, Sep 30 2023
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Hadley, MA
·
Turf
·
17,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 1,068 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Arkansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UMass -2.5
O/U 55.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arkansas State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2023 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arkansas State at Oklahoma | +36.0L0–73 | 57.5 | L0–73 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +21.0L3–37 | 57.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arkansas State vs Stony Brook | -24.0W31–7 | 47.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +7.0W44–37 | 46.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arkansas State at Massachusetts | +2.5W52–28 | 55.5 | W52–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arkansas State at Troy | +15.5L3–37 | 52.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +8.5L17–27 | 59.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.0W34–24 | 55.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +9.0W37–17 | 60.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +14.5L14–21 | 54.5 | L14–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +3.5W77–31 | 59.5 | W77–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Arkansas State at Marshall | +2.0L21–35 | 54.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois | -2.5L19–21 | 54.0 | L19–21 | U | N |
Massachusetts 2023 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Massachusetts at New Mexico State | +7.0W41–30 | 45.5 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | Massachusetts at Auburn | +35.0L14–59 | 52.0 | L14–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Massachusetts vs Miami (OH) | +7.0L28–41 | 45.0 | L28–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan | +7.0L17–19 | 50.0 | L17–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Massachusetts vs New Mexico | -3.5L31–34 | 48.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Massachusetts vs Arkansas State | -2.5L28–52 | 55.5 | L28–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Massachusetts vs Toledo | +19.0L24–41 | 55.5 | L24–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Massachusetts at Penn State | +42.0L0–63 | 55.0 | L0–63 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Massachusetts at Army | +10.0W21–14 | 49.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Massachusetts vs Merrimack | -16.5W31–21 | 57.5 | W31–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/18 | Massachusetts at Liberty | +26.5L25–49 | 64.5 | L25–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Massachusetts vs UConn | -2.5L18–31 | 51.0 | L18–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +1.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +17.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas State
1 — 4 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arkansas State
3.6 — 93.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas State won by 24
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas State with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
2–14 (13%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Steve Casula
Yr 2
#1
DC
Keith Dudzinski
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓