Sat, Dec 23 2023
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Cramton Bowl
Montgomery, AL
·
Turf
·
21,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 346 miSame TZ
Northern Illinois✈ 674 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas State -2.5
O/U 54.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northern Illinois
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2023 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arkansas State at Oklahoma | +36.0L0–73 | 57.5 | L0–73 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +21.0L3–37 | 57.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arkansas State vs Stony Brook | -24.0W31–7 | 47.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +7.0W44–37 | 46.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arkansas State at Massachusetts | +2.5W52–28 | 55.5 | W52–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arkansas State at Troy | +15.5L3–37 | 52.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +8.5L17–27 | 59.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.0W34–24 | 55.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +9.0W37–17 | 60.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +14.5L14–21 | 54.5 | L14–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +3.5W77–31 | 59.5 | W77–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Arkansas State at Marshall | +2.0L21–35 | 54.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois | -2.5L19–21 | 54.0 | L19–21 | U | N |
Northern Illinois 2023 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Northern Illinois at Boston College | +8.0W27–24 | 50.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois | -6.5L11–14 | 58.5 | L11–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Northern Illinois at Nebraska | +11.5L11–35 | 42.5 | L11–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Northern Illinois vs Tulsa | -3.5L14–22 | 54.5 | L14–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +13.0L33–35 | 48.0 | L33–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Northern Illinois at Akron | -4.0W55–14 | 42.5 | W55–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Northern Illinois vs Ohio | +5.5W23–13 | 45.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan | -11.5W20–13 | 43.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | -3.0L31–37 | 48.0 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Tue 11/7 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | -9.5L17–20 | 43.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Tue 11/14 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | -4.5W24–0 | 55.5 | W24–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Northern Illinois at Kent State | -20.5W37–27 | 44.5 | W37–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State | +2.5W21–19 | 54.0 | W21–19 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +5.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Northern Illinois
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Northern Illinois
74.7 — 11.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Northern Illinois won by 2
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
18–29 (38%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Eric Eidsness
Yr 3
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓