Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Norman, OK
·
Turf
·
84,389 cap
Arkansas State✈ 383 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma -36
O/U 57.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oklahoma
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2023 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arkansas State at Oklahoma | +36.0L0–73 | 57.5 | L0–73 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +21.0L3–37 | 57.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arkansas State vs Stony Brook | -24.0W31–7 | 47.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +7.0W44–37 | 46.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arkansas State at Massachusetts | +2.5W52–28 | 55.5 | W52–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arkansas State at Troy | +15.5L3–37 | 52.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +8.5L17–27 | 59.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.0W34–24 | 55.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +9.0W37–17 | 60.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +14.5L14–21 | 54.5 | L14–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +3.5W77–31 | 59.5 | W77–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Arkansas State at Marshall | +2.0L21–35 | 54.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois | -2.5L19–21 | 54.0 | L19–21 | U | N |
Oklahoma 2023 Schedule
Oklahoma's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Oklahoma vs Arkansas State | -36.0W73–0 | 57.5 | W73–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Oklahoma vs SMU | -16.5W28–11 | 68.5 | W28–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oklahoma at Tulsa | -28.0W66–17 | 58.5 | W66–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Oklahoma at Cincinnati | -13.0W20–6 | 58.0 | W20–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Oklahoma vs Iowa State | -19.5W50–20 | 48.5 | W50–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Oklahoma vs Texas | +4.0W34–30 | 62.0 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Oklahoma vs UCF | -17.0W31–29 | 67.5 | W31–29 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Oklahoma at Kansas | -7.0L33–38 | 66.5 | L33–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Oklahoma at Oklahoma State | -6.0L24–27 | 61.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Oklahoma vs West Virginia | -13.5W59–20 | 59.5 | W59–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Oklahoma at BYU | -24.5W31–24 | 58.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Oklahoma vs TCU | -12.5W69–45 | 66.5 | W69–45 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | Oklahoma vs Arizona | +2.5L24–38 | 59.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oklahoma
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oklahoma
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oklahoma
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oklahoma
7 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oklahoma
96.1 — 2.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Oklahoma won by 73
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oklahoma, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Oklahoma
Brent Venables #1
9–7 (56%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 2
#1
DC
Todd Bates
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓