Sat, Oct 14 2023
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
Marshall✈ 342 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Georgia State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -2
O/U 53.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Marshall
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Marshall 2023 Schedule
Marshall's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Marshall vs UAlbany | -22.0W21–17 | 47.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Marshall at East Carolina | -3.0W31–13 | 43.5 | W31–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Marshall vs Virginia Tech | -5.5W24–17 | 41.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Marshall vs Old Dominion | -14.5W41–35 | 47.0 | W41–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Marshall at NC State | +6.5L41–48 | 44.0 | L41–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Marshall at Georgia State | +2.0L24–41 | 53.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Thu 10/19 | Marshall vs James Madison | +5.0L9–20 | 49.0 | L9–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Marshall at Coastal Carolina | -3.5L6–34 | 47.0 | L6–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Marshall at App State | +3.0L9–31 | 57.5 | L9–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Marshall vs Georgia Southern | +1.5W38–33 | 56.5 | W38–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Marshall at South Alabama | +10.5L0–28 | 44.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Marshall vs Arkansas State | -2.0W35–21 | 54.0 | W35–21 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/19 | Marshall vs UTSA | +7.0L17–35 | 47.0 | L17–35 | O | N |
Georgia State 2023 Schedule
Georgia State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Georgia State vs Rhode Island | -18.0W42–35 | 61.5 | W42–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia State vs UConn | -3.0W35–14 | 54.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia State at Charlotte | -6.5W41–25 | 52.0 | W41–25 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/21 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +4.5W30–17 | 62.5 | W30–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia State vs Troy | -1.0L7–28 | 50.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Georgia State vs Marshall | -2.0W41–24 | 53.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Georgia State at Louisiana | +3.0W20–17 | 62.0 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/26 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -1.0L27–44 | 63.0 | L27–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia State vs James Madison | +6.0L14–42 | 53.0 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia State vs App State | -2.5L14–42 | 62.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia State at LSU | +32.5L14–56 | 73.5 | L14–56 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia State at Old Dominion | +2.0L24–25 | 49.5 | L24–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Georgia State vs Utah State | +2.0W45–22 | 58.0 | W45–22 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +28.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia State
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia State
76.3 — 10.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia State won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
18–10 (64%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Clint Trickett
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jason Semore
Yr 1
#1
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
37–38 (49%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Trent McKnight
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chad Staggs
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓