Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, AL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 389 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Arkansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Troy -15.5
O/U 52.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Troy
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2023 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arkansas State at Oklahoma | +36.0L0–73 | 57.5 | L0–73 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +21.0L3–37 | 57.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arkansas State vs Stony Brook | -24.0W31–7 | 47.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +7.0W44–37 | 46.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arkansas State at Massachusetts | +2.5W52–28 | 55.5 | W52–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arkansas State at Troy | +15.5L3–37 | 52.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +8.5L17–27 | 59.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.0W34–24 | 55.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +9.0W37–17 | 60.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +14.5L14–21 | 54.5 | L14–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +3.5W77–31 | 59.5 | W77–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Arkansas State at Marshall | +2.0L21–35 | 54.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois | -2.5L19–21 | 54.0 | L19–21 | U | N |
Troy 2023 Schedule
Troy's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Troy vs Stephen F. Austin | -26.0W48–30 | 48.0 | W48–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Troy at Kansas State | +15.0L13–42 | 50.0 | L13–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Troy vs James Madison | -2.5L14–16 | 46.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Troy vs Western Kentucky | -3.5W27–24 | 57.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Troy at Georgia State | +1.0W28–7 | 50.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Troy vs Arkansas State | -15.5W37–3 | 52.0 | W37–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Troy at Army | -6.5W19–0 | 41.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Troy at Texas State | -6.5W31–13 | 53.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/2 | Troy vs South Alabama | -5.5W28–10 | 44.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Troy at UL Monroe | -23.5W45–14 | 47.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Troy vs Louisiana | -17.5W31–24 | 47.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Troy at Southern Miss | -16.5W35–17 | 48.5 | W35–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Troy vs App State | -6.5W49–23 | 51.5 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Troy vs Duke | -7.0L10–17 | 44.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Troy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +4.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Troy
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Troy
87.7 — 5.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Troy won by 34
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Troy
Jon Sumrall #1
13–4 (77%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 2
#1
DC
Greg Gasparato
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓