Sat, Nov 18 2023
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Centennial Bank Stadium
Jonesboro, AR
·
Turf
·
30,964 cap
Texas State✈ 588 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Texas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Texas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -3.5
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2023 Schedule
Texas State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Texas State at Baylor | +26.5W42–31 | 58.5 | W42–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Texas State at UTSA | +13.5L13–20 | 66.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Texas State vs Jackson State | -17.5W77–34 | 61.5 | W77–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Texas State vs Nevada | -17.0W35–24 | 60.0 | W35–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Texas State at Southern Miss | -6.5W50–36 | 60.0 | W50–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Texas State at Louisiana | +1.0L30–34 | 67.5 | L30–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -18.5W21–20 | 64.5 | W21–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Texas State vs Troy | +6.5L13–31 | 53.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Texas State vs Georgia Southern | +2.0W45–24 | 69.0 | W45–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Texas State at Coastal Carolina | -2.5L23–31 | 55.5 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Texas State at Arkansas State | -3.5L31–77 | 59.5 | L31–77 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Texas State vs South Alabama | +6.5W52–44 | 57.0 | W52–44 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Texas State vs Rice | -3.5W45–21 | 58.5 | W45–21 | O | Y |
Arkansas State 2023 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arkansas State at Oklahoma | +36.0L0–73 | 57.5 | L0–73 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +21.0L3–37 | 57.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arkansas State vs Stony Brook | -24.0W31–7 | 47.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +7.0W44–37 | 46.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arkansas State at Massachusetts | +2.5W52–28 | 55.5 | W52–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arkansas State at Troy | +15.5L3–37 | 52.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +8.5L17–27 | 59.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.0W34–24 | 55.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +9.0W37–17 | 60.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +14.5L14–21 | 54.5 | L14–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +3.5W77–31 | 59.5 | W77–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Arkansas State at Marshall | +2.0L21–35 | 54.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois | -2.5L19–21 | 54.0 | L19–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +13.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas State
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas State
62.6 — 14.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arkansas State won by 46
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mack Leftwich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jonathan Patke
Yr 1
#1
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓