Matchup Prediction
Troy
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Troy entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Troy wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Troy wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Troy -23.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Troy
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Troy 2023 Schedule
Troy's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Troy vs Stephen F. Austin | -26.0W48–30 | 48.0 | W48–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Troy at Kansas State | +15.0L13–42 | 50.0 | L13–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Troy vs James Madison | -2.5L14–16 | 46.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Troy vs Western Kentucky | -3.5W27–24 | 57.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Troy at Georgia State | +1.0W28–7 | 50.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Troy vs Arkansas State | -15.5W37–3 | 52.0 | W37–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Troy at Army | -6.5W19–0 | 41.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Troy at Texas State | -6.5W31–13 | 53.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/2 | Troy vs South Alabama | -5.5W28–10 | 44.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Troy at UL Monroe | -23.5W45–14 | 47.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Troy vs Louisiana | -17.5W31–24 | 47.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Troy at Southern Miss | -16.5W35–17 | 48.5 | W35–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Troy vs App State | -6.5W49–23 | 51.5 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Troy vs Duke | -7.0L10–17 | 44.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
UL Monroe 2023 Schedule
UL Monroe's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | UL Monroe vs Army | +8.5W17–13 | 47.0 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | UL Monroe vs Lamar | -26.0W24–14 | 48.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | UL Monroe at Texas A&M | +36.5L3–47 | 53.5 | L3–47 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/30 | UL Monroe vs App State | +13.5L40–41 | 50.5 | L40–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | UL Monroe vs South Alabama | +11.0L7–55 | 51.5 | L7–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | UL Monroe at Texas State | +18.5L20–21 | 64.5 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | UL Monroe at Georgia Southern | +16.5L28–38 | 60.5 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | UL Monroe vs Arkansas State | -1.0L24–34 | 55.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | UL Monroe at Southern Miss | +3.0L7–24 | 56.0 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | UL Monroe vs Troy | +23.5L14–45 | 47.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | UL Monroe at Ole Miss | +35.5L3–35 | 59.5 | L3–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | UL Monroe at Louisiana | +12.5L21–52 | 53.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Troy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Troy Edge
Troy +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Troy Edge
Troy +30.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Troy with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Troy
Jon Sumrall #1
13–4 (77%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 2
#1
DC
Greg Gasparato
Yr 1
#1
UL Monroe
Terry Bowden #1
10–17 (37%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Matt Kubik
Yr 2
#1
DC
Vic Koenning
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓