Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, AL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Stephen F. Austin✈ 510 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Troy
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Troy entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Troy wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Troy wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Troy -26
O/U 48.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Stephen F. Austin 2023 Schedule
Stephen F. Austin's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Stephen F. Austin at Troy | +26.0L30–48 | 48.0 | L30–48 | O | Y |
Troy 2023 Schedule
Troy's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Troy vs Stephen F. Austin | -26.0W48–30 | 48.0 | W48–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Troy at Kansas State | +15.0L13–42 | 50.0 | L13–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Troy vs James Madison | -2.5L14–16 | 46.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Troy vs Western Kentucky | -3.5W27–24 | 57.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Troy at Georgia State | +1.0W28–7 | 50.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Troy vs Arkansas State | -15.5W37–3 | 52.0 | W37–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Troy at Army | -6.5W19–0 | 41.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Troy at Texas State | -6.5W31–13 | 53.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/2 | Troy vs South Alabama | -5.5W28–10 | 44.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Troy at UL Monroe | -23.5W45–14 | 47.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Troy vs Louisiana | -17.5W31–24 | 47.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Troy at Southern Miss | -16.5W35–17 | 48.5 | W35–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Troy vs App State | -6.5W49–23 | 51.5 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Troy vs Duke | -7.0L10–17 | 44.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Troy Edge
Troy +1.15
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Troy Edge
Troy +47.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓