Troy at Southern Miss Week 13 College Football Matchup Troy at Southern Miss Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 25 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium Hattiesburg, MS · Turf · 36,000 cap
Troy✈ 201 miSame TZ
Away
35 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Troy
33
Southern Miss
15
P&R Line Troy -18
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Troy -16.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Troy has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Troy entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Troy wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Troy wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Troy -16.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Troy · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Troy 2023 Schedule
Troy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Troy vs Stephen F. Austin-26.0W48–3048.0W48–30ON
Sat 9/9Troy at Kansas State+15.0L13–4250.0L13–42ON
Sat 9/16Troy vs James Madison-2.5L14–1646.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/23Troy vs Western Kentucky-3.5W27–2457.0W27–24UN
Sat 9/30Troy at Georgia State+1.0W28–750.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/7Troy vs Arkansas State-15.5W37–352.0W37–3UY
Sat 10/14Troy at Army-6.5W19–041.5W19–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Troy at Texas State-6.5W31–1353.0W31–13UY
Thu 11/2Troy vs South Alabama-5.5W28–1044.5W28–10UY
Sat 11/11Troy at UL Monroe-23.5W45–1447.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/18Troy vs Louisiana-17.5W31–2447.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/25Troy at Southern Miss-16.5W35–1748.5W35–17OY
Sat 12/2Troy vs App State-6.5W49–2351.5W49–23OY
Sat 12/23Troy vs Duke-7.0L10–1744.0L10–17UN
Southern Miss 2023 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Southern Miss vs Alcorn State-24.0W40–1447.5W40–14OY
Sat 9/9Southern Miss at Florida State+31.0L13–6654.0L13–66ON
Sat 9/16Southern Miss vs Tulane+8.0L3–2147.5L3–21UN
Sat 9/23Southern Miss at Arkansas State-7.0L37–4446.5L37–44ON
Sat 9/30Southern Miss vs Texas State+6.5L36–5060.0L36–50ON
Sat 10/7Southern Miss vs Old Dominion-3.0L13–1756.5L13–17UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/17Southern Miss at South Alabama+18.5L3–5551.0L3–55ON
Sat 10/28Southern Miss at App State+16.0L38–4855.5L38–48OY
Sat 11/4Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-3.0W24–756.0W24–7UY
Thu 11/9Southern Miss at Louisiana+8.5W34–3151.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/18Southern Miss at Mississippi State+18.5L20–4147.5L20–41ON
Sat 11/25Southern Miss vs Troy+16.5L17–3548.5L17–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Troy PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Troy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Troy #56
+0.456
Southern Miss #109
+0.148
Troy Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Troy #66
+0.613
Southern Miss #114
+0.265
Troy Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Troy #25
0.182
Southern Miss #73
0.160
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Troy Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Troy #78
+7.931
Southern Miss #121
+6.031
Troy Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Troy #78
+0.835
Southern Miss #121
+0.748
Troy Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Troy #29
69.1
Southern Miss #109
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Troy Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Troy Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Troy
-12.2
Southern Miss
-13.0
Offense Rating
Troy
9.7
Southern Miss
8.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Troy
21.8
Southern Miss
21.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Troy Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Troy #48
1.30
Southern Miss #85
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #9
0.20
Southern Miss #127
2.30
Troy +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Troy Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Troy #1
55.0
Southern Miss #1
32.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #30
26.6
Southern Miss #115
52.5
Troy +22.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Southern Miss
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Troy
11.4 — 68.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Troy won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Troy with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Troy
Jon Sumrall #1
13–4 (77%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Joe Craddock Yr 2 #1
DC Greg Gasparato Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
11–17 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Sam Gregg Yr 2 #1
DC Dan O'Brien Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself