UTEP at Florida International Week 7 College Football Matchup UTEP at Florida International Matchup - Week 7
Wed, Oct 11 2023 · Week 7 · 🏟 FIU Stadium Miami, FL · Turf · 23,500 cap
UTEP✈ 1,632 mi+2 hr TZ
Away
27 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UTEP
23
Florida International
25
P&R Line Florida International -1.5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas UTEP -1.5 · O/U 44.0
Matchup Prediction
Florida International has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida International wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
UTEP -1.5
O/U 44.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 UTEP Coming off BYE
UTEP 2023 Schedule
UTEP's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26UTEP at Jacksonville State-1.5L14–1754.5L14–17UN
Sat 9/2UTEP vs Incarnate Word-7.5W28–1457.5W28–14UY
Sat 9/9UTEP at Northwestern+1.0L7–3840.0L7–38ON
Sat 9/16UTEP at Arizona+18.0L10–3157.0L10–31UN
Sat 9/23UTEP vs UNLV-1.0L28–4549.5L28–45ON
Fri 9/29UTEP vs Louisiana Tech+2.0L10–2449.5L10–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/11UTEP at Florida International-1.5W27–1444.0W27–14UY
Wed 10/18UTEP vs New Mexico State+3.0L7–2848.5L7–28UN
Wed 10/25UTEP at Sam Houston+4.0W37–3438.5W37–34OY
Sat 11/4UTEP vs Western Kentucky+9.5L13–2154.5L13–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/18UTEP at Middle Tennessee+8.5L30–3448.5L30–34OY
Sat 11/25UTEP vs Liberty+18.0L28–4254.5L28–42OY
Florida International 2023 Schedule
Florida International's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Florida International at Louisiana Tech+12.0L17–2257.5L17–22UY
Sat 9/2Florida International vs Maine-15.0W14–1246.0W14–12UN
Sat 9/9Florida International vs North Texas+10.5W46–3951.5W46–39OY
Sat 9/16Florida International at UConn+7.0W24–1743.0W24–17UY
Sat 9/23Florida International vs Liberty+10.0L6–3854.0L6–38UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/4Florida International at New Mexico State+6.5L17–3449.5L17–34ON
Wed 10/11Florida International vs UTEP+1.5L14–2744.0L14–27UN
Wed 10/18Florida International at Sam Houston+6.0W33–2742.0W33–27OY
Wed 10/25Florida International vs Jacksonville State+9.0L16–4148.0L16–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11Florida International at Middle Tennessee+10.5L6–4050.5L6–40UN
Sat 11/18Florida International at Arkansas+27.5L20–4449.5L20–44OY
Sat 11/25Florida International vs Western Kentucky+11.5L28–4154.0L28–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
UTEP PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UTEP #80
+0.367
Florida International #117
+0.335
UTEP Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #68
+0.646
Florida International #102
+0.430
UTEP Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UTEP #88
0.153
Florida International #129
0.118
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #93
+6.938
Florida International #113
+7.827
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UTEP #103
+0.799
Florida International #120
+0.802
Florida International Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UTEP #127
73.9
Florida International #130
74.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UTEP Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UTEP
-16.2
Florida International
-4.1
Offense Rating
UTEP
4.4
Florida International
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UTEP
20.6
Florida International
15.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida International Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UTEP #117
0.00
Florida International #124
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #66
1.40
Florida International #107
1.40
Florida International +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida International Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UTEP #1
16.2
Florida International #1
41.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #127
64.7
Florida International #118
37.1
Florida International +24.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida International with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UTEP
Dana Dimel #1
18–43 (30%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Scotty Ohara Yr 1 #1
DC Bradley Dale Peveto Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
7–9 (44%) · Yr 2 at school
OC David Yost Yr 2 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself