Sat, Nov 11 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
·
Turf
·
31,000 cap
Florida International✈ 782 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida International,
while Game Control favors Middle Tennessee.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Middle Tennessee wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -10.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Middle Tennessee
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2023 Schedule
Florida International's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Florida International at Louisiana Tech | +12.0L17–22 | 57.5 | L17–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | Florida International vs Maine | -15.0W14–12 | 46.0 | W14–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Florida International vs North Texas | +10.5W46–39 | 51.5 | W46–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Florida International at UConn | +7.0W24–17 | 43.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Florida International vs Liberty | +10.0L6–38 | 54.0 | L6–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/4 | Florida International at New Mexico State | +6.5L17–34 | 49.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Wed 10/11 | Florida International vs UTEP | +1.5L14–27 | 44.0 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Wed 10/18 | Florida International at Sam Houston | +6.0W33–27 | 42.0 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/25 | Florida International vs Jacksonville State | +9.0L16–41 | 48.0 | L16–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/11 | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | +10.5L6–40 | 50.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Florida International at Arkansas | +27.5L20–44 | 49.5 | L20–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Florida International vs Western Kentucky | +11.5L28–41 | 54.0 | L28–41 | O | N |
Middle Tennessee 2023 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Middle Tennessee at Alabama | +39.5L7–56 | 52.0 | L7–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Middle Tennessee at Missouri | +21.0L19–23 | 47.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Middle Tennessee vs Murray State | -34.5W35–14 | 51.0 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State | -3.5L23–31 | 50.0 | L23–31 | O | N |
| Thu 9/28 | Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | +6.5L10–31 | 61.0 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Wed 10/4 | Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State | -2.5L30–45 | 52.0 | L30–45 | O | N |
| Tue 10/10 | Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech | -3.0W31–23 | 53.5 | W31–23 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/17 | Middle Tennessee at Liberty | +16.0L35–42 | 56.5 | L35–42 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State | +3.0L7–13 | 55.5 | L7–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | -10.5W40–6 | 50.5 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Middle Tennessee vs UTEP | -8.5W34–30 | 48.5 | W34–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston | -3.5L20–23 | 49.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +1.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Middle Tennessee
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Middle Tennessee
89.0 — 4.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Middle Tennessee won by 34
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
7–9 (44%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 2
#1
Middle Tennessee
Rick Stockstill #1
110–105 (51%)
· Yr 18 at school
OC
Mitch Stewart
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scott Shafer
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓