Sun, Nov 19 2023
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Fayetteville, AR
·
Turf
·
72,000 cap
Florida International✈ 1,082 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Arkansas wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Arkansas wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -27.5
O/U 49.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arkansas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2023 Schedule
Florida International's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Florida International at Louisiana Tech | +12.0L17–22 | 57.5 | L17–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | Florida International vs Maine | -15.0W14–12 | 46.0 | W14–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Florida International vs North Texas | +10.5W46–39 | 51.5 | W46–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Florida International at UConn | +7.0W24–17 | 43.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Florida International vs Liberty | +10.0L6–38 | 54.0 | L6–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/4 | Florida International at New Mexico State | +6.5L17–34 | 49.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Wed 10/11 | Florida International vs UTEP | +1.5L14–27 | 44.0 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Wed 10/18 | Florida International at Sam Houston | +6.0W33–27 | 42.0 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/25 | Florida International vs Jacksonville State | +9.0L16–41 | 48.0 | L16–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/11 | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | +10.5L6–40 | 50.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Florida International at Arkansas | +27.5L20–44 | 49.5 | L20–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Florida International vs Western Kentucky | +11.5L28–41 | 54.0 | L28–41 | O | N |
Arkansas 2023 Schedule
Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arkansas vs Western Carolina | -38.0W56–13 | 61.0 | W56–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Arkansas vs Kent State | -38.0W28–6 | 57.5 | W28–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arkansas vs BYU | -9.0L31–38 | 48.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arkansas at LSU | +17.5L31–34 | 55.0 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +6.5L22–34 | 53.5 | L22–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | +13.0L20–27 | 61.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Arkansas at Alabama | +19.0L21–24 | 45.0 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Arkansas vs Mississippi State | -6.5L3–7 | 46.5 | L3–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Arkansas at Florida | +4.5W39–36 | 50.0 | W39–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arkansas vs Auburn | -2.5L10–48 | 46.5 | L10–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Arkansas vs Florida International | -27.5W44–20 | 49.5 | W44–20 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Arkansas vs Missouri | +9.5L14–48 | 53.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +0.56
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +3.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arkansas
62.5 — 15.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 24
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
7–9 (44%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 2
#1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
21–18 (54%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kenny Guiton
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓