Michigan at Michigan State Week 8 College Football Matchup Michigan at Michigan State Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 21 2023 · Week 8 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium East Lansing, MI · Turf · 75,005 cap
Away
49 0
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan
39
MICH -25.5
Michigan State
9
P&R Line Michigan -30
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -25.5 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Michigan -25.5
O/U 47.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan 2023 Schedule
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Michigan vs East Carolina-36.0W30–353.5W30–3UN
Sat 9/9Michigan vs UNLV-38.0W35–757.5W35–7UN
Sat 9/16Michigan vs Bowling Green-40.5W31–653.5W31–6UN
Sat 9/23Michigan vs Rutgers-24.0W31–744.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/30Michigan at Nebraska-17.0W45–739.5W45–7OY
Sat 10/7Michigan at Minnesota-18.5W52–1046.0W52–10OY
Sat 10/14Michigan vs Indiana-33.5W52–745.5W52–7OY
Sat 10/21Michigan at Michigan State-25.5W49–047.0W49–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4Michigan vs Purdue-32.5W41–1352.5W41–13ON
Sat 11/11Michigan at Penn State-4.0W24–1544.5W24–15UY
Sat 11/18Michigan at Maryland-17.5W31–2450.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/25Michigan vs Ohio State-3.0W30–2447.0W30–24OY
Sat 12/2Michigan vs Iowa-23.5W26–035.0W26–0UY
Mon 1/1Michigan vs Alabama-2.0W27–2046.0W27–20OY
Mon 1/8Michigan vs Washington-5.5W34–1355.5W34–13UY
Michigan State 2023 Schedule
Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Michigan State vs Central Michigan-14.0W31–745.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/9Michigan State vs Richmond-29.5W45–1443.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/16Michigan State vs Washington+14.5L7–4157.0L7–41UN
Sat 9/23Michigan State vs Maryland+7.0L9–3152.5L9–31UN
Sat 9/30Michigan State at Iowa+10.0L16–2636.5L16–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Michigan State at Rutgers+4.0L24–2738.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/21Michigan State vs Michigan+25.5L0–4947.0L0–49ON
Sat 10/28Michigan State at Minnesota+6.5L12–2741.5L12–27UN
Sat 11/4Michigan State vs Nebraska+3.0W20–1734.5W20–17OY
Sat 11/11Michigan State at Ohio State+30.5L3–3848.5L3–38UN
Sat 11/18Michigan State at Indiana+3.5W24–2147.5W24–21UY
Fri 11/24Michigan State vs Penn State+20.0L0–4242.0L0–42UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan #11
+0.519
Michigan State #131
+0.014
Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #5
+0.830
Michigan State #101
+0.257
Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan #6
0.214
Michigan State #68
0.161
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #10
+8.678
Michigan State #125
+5.331
Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan #7
+0.942
Michigan State #115
+0.699
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan #7
66.4
Michigan State #112
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan
18.3
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Michigan
24.3
Michigan State
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan
6.0
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan #12
2.86
Michigan State #121
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #1
0.00
Michigan State #118
1.60
Michigan +1.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan #1
81.2
Michigan State #1
40.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #2
8.2
Michigan State #110
42.7
Michigan +40.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
77–25 (76%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Sherrone Moore Yr 2 #1
DC Jesse Minter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Harlon Barnett #1
0–1 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 3 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself