East Carolina at Michigan Week 1 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Michigan Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Sep 2 2023 · Week 1 · 🏟 Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI · Turf · 107,601 cap
East Carolina✈ 574 miSame TZ
3 30
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
7
ECU +36
Michigan
41
P&R Line Michigan -34
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -36 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan -36
O/U 53.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2023 Schedule
East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2East Carolina at Michigan+36.0L3–3053.5L3–30UY
Sat 9/9East Carolina vs Marshall+3.0L13–3143.5L13–31ON
Sat 9/16East Carolina at App State+7.5L28–4348.5L28–43ON
Sat 9/23East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb-13.0W44–051.0W44–0UY
Sat 9/30East Carolina at Rice+3.5L17–2447.0L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12East Carolina vs SMU+11.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
Sat 10/21East Carolina vs Charlotte-6.0L7–1039.5L7–10UN
Sat 10/28East Carolina at UTSA+17.5L27–4148.0L27–41OY
Sat 11/4East Carolina vs Tulane+17.0L10–1346.0L10–13UY
Sat 11/11East Carolina at Florida Atlantic+7.5W22–744.5W22–7UY
Sat 11/18East Carolina at Navy+2.5L0–1030.5L0–10UN
Sat 11/25East Carolina vs Tulsa-4.5L27–2944.5L27–29ON
Michigan 2023 Schedule
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Michigan vs East Carolina-36.0W30–353.5W30–3UN
Sat 9/9Michigan vs UNLV-38.0W35–757.5W35–7UN
Sat 9/16Michigan vs Bowling Green-40.5W31–653.5W31–6UN
Sat 9/23Michigan vs Rutgers-24.0W31–744.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/30Michigan at Nebraska-17.0W45–739.5W45–7OY
Sat 10/7Michigan at Minnesota-18.5W52–1046.0W52–10OY
Sat 10/14Michigan vs Indiana-33.5W52–745.5W52–7OY
Sat 10/21Michigan at Michigan State-25.5W49–047.0W49–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4Michigan vs Purdue-32.5W41–1352.5W41–13ON
Sat 11/11Michigan at Penn State-4.0W24–1544.5W24–15UY
Sat 11/18Michigan at Maryland-17.5W31–2450.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/25Michigan vs Ohio State-3.0W30–2447.0W30–24OY
Sat 12/2Michigan vs Iowa-23.5W26–035.0W26–0UY
Mon 1/1Michigan vs Alabama-2.0W27–2046.0W27–20OY
Mon 1/8Michigan vs Washington-5.5W34–1355.5W34–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #132
+0.005
Michigan #11
+0.473
Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #129
+0.136
Michigan #5
+0.870
Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #11
0.198
Michigan #6
0.214
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #129
+4.987
Michigan #10
+7.634
Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #132
+0.656
Michigan #7
+0.846
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #36
69.4
Michigan #7
66.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Michigan
18.3
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Michigan
24.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
Michigan
6.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #116
0.00
Michigan #12
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #97
0.00
Michigan #1
0.00
East Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
0.0
Michigan #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #108
0.0
Michigan #2
0.0
East Carolina +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan
97.2 — 0.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
22–27 (45%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Donnie Kirkpatrick Yr 3 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
77–25 (76%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Sherrone Moore Yr 2 #1
DC Jesse Minter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself