Tue, Jan 9 2024
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 NRG Stadium
Houston, TX
·
Turf
·
72,220 cap
Washington✈ 1,892 mi+2 hr TZ
Michigan✈ 1,084 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan -5.5
O/U 55.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Washington 2023 Schedule
Washington's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Washington vs Boise State | -14.0W56–19 | 59.0 | W56–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Washington vs Tulsa | -34.0W43–10 | 66.5 | W43–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Washington at Michigan State | -14.5W41–7 | 57.0 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Washington vs California | -21.0W59–32 | 55.5 | W59–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Washington at Arizona | -20.0W31–24 | 66.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Washington vs Oregon | -3.0W36–33 | 67.0 | W36–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Washington vs Arizona State | -28.0W15–7 | 59.5 | W15–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Washington at Stanford | -27.5W42–33 | 62.0 | W42–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Washington at USC | -3.0W52–42 | 76.0 | W52–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Washington vs Utah | -9.5W35–28 | 48.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Washington at Oregon State | +1.5W22–20 | 62.5 | W22–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Washington vs Washington State | -16.0W24–21 | 68.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Fri 12/1 | Washington vs Oregon | +9.0W34–31 | 67.0 | W34–31 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Washington vs Texas | +3.0W37–31 | 61.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/8 | Washington vs Michigan | +5.5L13–34 | 55.5 | L13–34 | U | N |
Michigan 2023 Schedule
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Michigan vs East Carolina | -36.0W30–3 | 53.5 | W30–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Michigan vs UNLV | -38.0W35–7 | 57.5 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Michigan vs Bowling Green | -40.5W31–6 | 53.5 | W31–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Michigan vs Rutgers | -24.0W31–7 | 44.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Michigan at Nebraska | -17.0W45–7 | 39.5 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Michigan at Minnesota | -18.5W52–10 | 46.0 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Michigan vs Indiana | -33.5W52–7 | 45.5 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Michigan at Michigan State | -25.5W49–0 | 47.0 | W49–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Michigan vs Purdue | -32.5W41–13 | 52.5 | W41–13 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Michigan at Penn State | -4.0W24–15 | 44.5 | W24–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Michigan at Maryland | -17.5W31–24 | 50.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Michigan vs Ohio State | -3.0W30–24 | 47.0 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Michigan vs Iowa | -23.5W26–0 | 35.0 | W26–0 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Michigan vs Alabama | -2.0W27–20 | 46.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/8 | Michigan vs Washington | -5.5W34–13 | 55.5 | W34–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 14 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 14 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Michigan
85.8 — 8.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington
Kalen DeBoer #1
14–2 (88%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 2
#1
DC
William Inge
Yr 2
#1
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
77–25 (76%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Sherrone Moore
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓