Sat, Nov 11 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Michigan✈ 320 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan -4.0
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Michigan
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan 2023 Schedule
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Michigan vs East Carolina | -36.0W30–3 | 53.5 | W30–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Michigan vs UNLV | -38.0W35–7 | 57.5 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Michigan vs Bowling Green | -40.5W31–6 | 53.5 | W31–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Michigan vs Rutgers | -24.0W31–7 | 44.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Michigan at Nebraska | -17.0W45–7 | 39.5 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Michigan at Minnesota | -18.5W52–10 | 46.0 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Michigan vs Indiana | -33.5W52–7 | 45.5 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Michigan at Michigan State | -25.5W49–0 | 47.0 | W49–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Michigan vs Purdue | -32.5W41–13 | 52.5 | W41–13 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Michigan at Penn State | -4.0W24–15 | 44.5 | W24–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Michigan at Maryland | -17.5W31–24 | 50.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Michigan vs Ohio State | -3.0W30–24 | 47.0 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Michigan vs Iowa | -23.5W26–0 | 35.0 | W26–0 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Michigan vs Alabama | -2.0W27–20 | 46.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/8 | Michigan vs Washington | -5.5W34–13 | 55.5 | W34–13 | U | Y |
Penn State 2023 Schedule
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Penn State vs West Virginia | -21.0W38–15 | 48.0 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Penn State vs Delaware | -44.0W63–7 | 55.0 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Penn State at Illinois | -14.0W30–13 | 47.5 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Penn State vs Iowa | -14.0W31–0 | 38.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Penn State at Northwestern | -27.0W41–13 | 48.0 | W41–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Penn State vs Massachusetts | -42.0W63–0 | 55.0 | W63–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Penn State at Ohio State | +4.0L12–20 | 47.0 | L12–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Penn State vs Indiana | -31.0W33–24 | 45.0 | W33–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Penn State at Maryland | -8.5W51–15 | 50.5 | W51–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Penn State vs Michigan | +4.0L15–24 | 44.5 | L15–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Penn State vs Rutgers | -19.5W27–6 | 39.5 | W27–6 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Penn State vs Michigan State | -20.0W42–0 | 42.0 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/30 | Penn State vs Ole Miss | -5.5L25–38 | 53.0 | L25–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +0.53
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +14.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
77–25 (76%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Sherrone Moore
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 2
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
81–36 (69%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 3
#1
DC
Manny Diaz
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓