Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan -24
O/U 44.5
Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Rutgers 2023 Schedule
Rutgers's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Rutgers vs Northwestern | -5.0W24–7 | 39.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Rutgers vs Temple | -7.5W36–7 | 43.5 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Rutgers vs Virginia Tech | -6.5W35–16 | 37.5 | W35–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Rutgers at Michigan | +24.0L7–31 | 44.5 | L7–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Rutgers vs Wagner | -46.0W52–3 | 52.5 | W52–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Rutgers at Wisconsin | +12.5L13–24 | 44.0 | L13–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Rutgers vs Michigan State | -4.0W27–24 | 38.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Rutgers at Indiana | -6.0W31–14 | 39.5 | W31–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Rutgers vs Ohio State | +19.0L16–35 | 42.5 | L16–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Rutgers at Iowa | -2.5L0–22 | 27.5 | L0–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Rutgers at Penn State | +19.5L6–27 | 39.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Rutgers vs Maryland | +2.0L24–42 | 45.5 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Thu 12/28 | Rutgers vs Miami | -3.0W31–24 | 41.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
Michigan 2023 Schedule
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Michigan vs East Carolina | -36.0W30–3 | 53.5 | W30–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Michigan vs UNLV | -38.0W35–7 | 57.5 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Michigan vs Bowling Green | -40.5W31–6 | 53.5 | W31–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Michigan vs Rutgers | -24.0W31–7 | 44.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Michigan at Nebraska | -17.0W45–7 | 39.5 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Michigan at Minnesota | -18.5W52–10 | 46.0 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Michigan vs Indiana | -33.5W52–7 | 45.5 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Michigan at Michigan State | -25.5W49–0 | 47.0 | W49–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Michigan vs Purdue | -32.5W41–13 | 52.5 | W41–13 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Michigan at Penn State | -4.0W24–15 | 44.5 | W24–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Michigan at Maryland | -17.5W31–24 | 50.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Michigan vs Ohio State | -3.0W30–24 | 47.0 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Michigan vs Iowa | -23.5W26–0 | 35.0 | W26–0 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Michigan vs Alabama | -2.0W27–20 | 46.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/8 | Michigan vs Washington | -5.5W34–13 | 55.5 | W34–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Rutgers +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
1 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Michigan
56.5 — 20.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 24
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Rutgers
Greg Schiano #1
15–22 (41%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kirk Ciarrocca
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Harasymiak
Yr 2
#1
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
77–25 (76%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Sherrone Moore
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓