Sat, Nov 18 2023
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Bloomington, IN
·
Turf
·
52,959 cap
Michigan State✈ 267 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Michigan State,
while Game Control favors Indiana.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Indiana wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Indiana -3.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Indiana
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2023 Schedule
Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Michigan State vs Central Michigan | -14.0W31–7 | 45.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Michigan State vs Richmond | -29.5W45–14 | 43.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Michigan State vs Washington | +14.5L7–41 | 57.0 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Michigan State vs Maryland | +7.0L9–31 | 52.5 | L9–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Michigan State at Iowa | +10.0L16–26 | 36.5 | L16–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Michigan State at Rutgers | +4.0L24–27 | 38.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +25.5L0–49 | 47.0 | L0–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Michigan State at Minnesota | +6.5L12–27 | 41.5 | L12–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Michigan State vs Nebraska | +3.0W20–17 | 34.5 | W20–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Michigan State at Ohio State | +30.5L3–38 | 48.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Michigan State at Indiana | +3.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +20.0L0–42 | 42.0 | L0–42 | U | N |
Indiana 2023 Schedule
Indiana's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Indiana vs Ohio State | +30.0L3–23 | 59.0 | L3–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/8 | Indiana vs Indiana State | -31.0W41–7 | 44.0 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Indiana vs Louisville | +10.0L14–21 | 51.0 | L14–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Indiana vs Akron | -16.5W29–27 | 45.5 | W29–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Indiana at Maryland | +14.5L17–44 | 50.0 | L17–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Indiana at Michigan | +33.5L7–52 | 45.5 | L7–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Indiana vs Rutgers | +6.0L14–31 | 39.5 | L14–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Indiana at Penn State | +31.0L24–33 | 45.0 | L24–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Indiana vs Wisconsin | +9.5W20–14 | 45.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Indiana at Illinois | +4.5L45–48 | 43.5 | L45–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Indiana vs Michigan State | -3.5L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Indiana at Purdue | +2.5L31–35 | 55.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Indiana
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Indiana Edge
Indiana +0.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Harlon Barnett #1
0–1 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 3
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 3
#1
Indiana
Tom Allen #1
31–42 (43%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Guerrieri
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓