Ohio State at Michigan Week 13 College Football Matchup Ohio State at Michigan Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 25 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI · Turf · 107,601 cap
Ohio State✈ 160 miSame TZ
24 30
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ohio State
19
MICH -3
Michigan
26
P&R Line Michigan -7
P&R Total O/U 45
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -3.0 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan -3.0
O/U 47.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2023 Schedule
Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Ohio State at Indiana-30.0W23–359.0W23–3UN
Sat 9/9Ohio State vs Youngstown State-45.5W35–756.0W35–7UN
Sat 9/16Ohio State vs Western Kentucky-29.5W63–1065.0W63–10OY
Sat 9/23Ohio State at Notre Dame-3.0W17–1455.5W17–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7Ohio State vs Maryland-17.0W37–1756.5W37–17UY
Sat 10/14Ohio State at Purdue-17.5W41–753.0W41–7UY
Sat 10/21Ohio State vs Penn State-4.0W20–1247.0W20–12UY
Sat 10/28Ohio State at Wisconsin-14.5W24–1048.0W24–10UN
Sat 11/4Ohio State at Rutgers-19.0W35–1642.5W35–16ON
Sat 11/11Ohio State vs Michigan State-30.5W38–348.5W38–3UY
Sat 11/18Ohio State vs Minnesota-27.5W37–351.5W37–3UY
Sat 11/25Ohio State at Michigan+3.0L24–3047.0L24–30ON
Fri 12/29Ohio State vs Missouri-4.0L3–1451.0L3–14UN
Michigan 2023 Schedule
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Michigan vs East Carolina-36.0W30–353.5W30–3UN
Sat 9/9Michigan vs UNLV-38.0W35–757.5W35–7UN
Sat 9/16Michigan vs Bowling Green-40.5W31–653.5W31–6UN
Sat 9/23Michigan vs Rutgers-24.0W31–744.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/30Michigan at Nebraska-17.0W45–739.5W45–7OY
Sat 10/7Michigan at Minnesota-18.5W52–1046.0W52–10OY
Sat 10/14Michigan vs Indiana-33.5W52–745.5W52–7OY
Sat 10/21Michigan at Michigan State-25.5W49–047.0W49–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4Michigan vs Purdue-32.5W41–1352.5W41–13ON
Sat 11/11Michigan at Penn State-4.0W24–1544.5W24–15UY
Sat 11/18Michigan at Maryland-17.5W31–2450.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/25Michigan vs Ohio State-3.0W30–2447.0W30–24OY
Sat 12/2Michigan vs Iowa-23.5W26–035.0W26–0UY
Mon 1/1Michigan vs Alabama-2.0W27–2046.0W27–20OY
Mon 1/8Michigan vs Washington-5.5W34–1355.5W34–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ohio State #14
+0.300
Michigan #11
+0.362
Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ohio State #10
+0.590
Michigan #5
+0.584
Ohio State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ohio State #85
0.155
Michigan #6
0.214
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ohio State #36
+6.571
Michigan #10
+7.483
Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ohio State #22
+0.789
Michigan #7
+0.861
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ohio State #90
71.2
Michigan #7
66.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Ohio State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ohio State
27.0
Michigan
18.3
Offense Rating
Ohio State
29.0
Michigan
24.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ohio State
2.0
Michigan
6.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ohio State #40
1.90
Michigan #12
2.36
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio State #12
0.40
Michigan #1
0.09
Michigan +0.46
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ohio State #1
73.1
Michigan #1
81.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio State #6
12.3
Michigan #2
7.9
Michigan +8.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Michigan
66.0 — 13.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
48–6 (89%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Brian Hartline Yr 1 #1
DC Jim Knowles Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
77–25 (76%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Sherrone Moore Yr 2 #1
DC Jesse Minter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself