Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Washington✈ 1,853 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Washington wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Washington -14.5
O/U 57.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Washington 2023 Schedule
Washington's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Washington vs Boise State | -14.0W56–19 | 59.0 | W56–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Washington vs Tulsa | -34.0W43–10 | 66.5 | W43–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Washington at Michigan State | -14.5W41–7 | 57.0 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Washington vs California | -21.0W59–32 | 55.5 | W59–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Washington at Arizona | -20.0W31–24 | 66.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Washington vs Oregon | -3.0W36–33 | 67.0 | W36–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Washington vs Arizona State | -28.0W15–7 | 59.5 | W15–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Washington at Stanford | -27.5W42–33 | 62.0 | W42–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Washington at USC | -3.0W52–42 | 76.0 | W52–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Washington vs Utah | -9.5W35–28 | 48.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Washington at Oregon State | +1.5W22–20 | 62.5 | W22–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Washington vs Washington State | -16.0W24–21 | 68.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Fri 12/1 | Washington vs Oregon | +9.0W34–31 | 67.0 | W34–31 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Washington vs Texas | +3.0W37–31 | 61.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/8 | Washington vs Michigan | +5.5L13–34 | 55.5 | L13–34 | U | N |
Michigan State 2023 Schedule
Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Michigan State vs Central Michigan | -14.0W31–7 | 45.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Michigan State vs Richmond | -29.5W45–14 | 43.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Michigan State vs Washington | +14.5L7–41 | 57.0 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Michigan State vs Maryland | +7.0L9–31 | 52.5 | L9–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Michigan State at Iowa | +10.0L16–26 | 36.5 | L16–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Michigan State at Rutgers | +4.0L24–27 | 38.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +25.5L0–49 | 47.0 | L0–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Michigan State at Minnesota | +6.5L12–27 | 41.5 | L12–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Michigan State vs Nebraska | +3.0W20–17 | 34.5 | W20–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Michigan State at Ohio State | +30.5L3–38 | 48.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Michigan State at Indiana | +3.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +20.0L0–42 | 42.0 | L0–42 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington Edge
Washington +19.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington
Kalen DeBoer #1
14–2 (88%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 2
#1
DC
William Inge
Yr 2
#1
Michigan State
Harlon Barnett #1
0–1 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 3
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓