Michigan State at Iowa Week 5 College Football Matchup Michigan State at Iowa Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 30 2023 · Week 5 · 🏟 Kinnick Stadium Iowa City, IA · Turf · 70,585 cap
Michigan State✈ 369 mi-1 hr TZ
16 26
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan State
12
Iowa
25
P&R Line Iowa -12.5
P&R Total O/U 37
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa -10 · O/U 36.5
Matchup Prediction
Iowa has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Iowa wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Iowa wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Iowa -10
O/U 36.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2023 Schedule
Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Michigan State vs Central Michigan-14.0W31–745.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/9Michigan State vs Richmond-29.5W45–1443.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/16Michigan State vs Washington+14.5L7–4157.0L7–41UN
Sat 9/23Michigan State vs Maryland+7.0L9–3152.5L9–31UN
Sat 9/30Michigan State at Iowa+10.0L16–2636.5L16–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Michigan State at Rutgers+4.0L24–2738.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/21Michigan State vs Michigan+25.5L0–4947.0L0–49ON
Sat 10/28Michigan State at Minnesota+6.5L12–2741.5L12–27UN
Sat 11/4Michigan State vs Nebraska+3.0W20–1734.5W20–17OY
Sat 11/11Michigan State at Ohio State+30.5L3–3848.5L3–38UN
Sat 11/18Michigan State at Indiana+3.5W24–2147.5W24–21UY
Fri 11/24Michigan State vs Penn State+20.0L0–4242.0L0–42UN
Iowa 2023 Schedule
Iowa's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Iowa vs Utah State-24.0W24–1443.5W24–14UN
Sat 9/9Iowa at Iowa State-3.5W20–1335.5W20–13UY
Sat 9/16Iowa vs Western Michigan-28.5W41–1043.5W41–10OY
Sat 9/23Iowa at Penn State+14.0L0–3138.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/30Iowa vs Michigan State-10.0W26–1636.5W26–16ON
Sat 10/7Iowa vs Purdue-2.5W20–1438.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/14Iowa at Wisconsin+8.0W15–633.5W15–6UY
Sat 10/21Iowa vs Minnesota-3.0L10–1230.5L10–12UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4Iowa vs Northwestern-4.5W10–730.5W10–7UN
Sat 11/11Iowa vs Rutgers+2.5W22–027.5W22–0UY
Sat 11/18Iowa vs Illinois-2.5W15–1333.5W15–13UN
Fri 11/24Iowa at Nebraska+3.0W13–1025.5W13–10UY
Sat 12/2Iowa vs Michigan+23.5L0–2635.0L0–26UN
Mon 1/1Iowa vs Tennessee+4.5L0–3537.0L0–35UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Iowa PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan State #131
+0.016
Iowa #133
+0.152
Iowa Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #101
+0.252
Iowa #125
+0.358
Iowa Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan State #68
0.161
Iowa #64
0.163
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #125
+5.614
Iowa #126
+6.747
Iowa Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan State #115
+0.717
Iowa #133
+0.768
Iowa Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan State #112
72.4
Iowa #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan State
-1.7
Iowa
11.5
Offense Rating
Michigan State
15.7
Iowa
18.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan State
17.4
Iowa
7.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan State #121
0.67
Iowa #106
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #118
2.33
Iowa #62
0.75
Iowa +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan State #1
36.1
Iowa #1
59.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #110
52.1
Iowa #41
27.6
Iowa +23.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Harlon Barnett #1
0–1 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 3 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
189–115 (62%) · Yr 25 at school
OC Brian Ferentz Yr 3 #1
DC Phil Parker Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself