Sun, Nov 12 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Ohio Stadium
Columbus, OH
·
Turf
·
104,944 cap
Michigan State✈ 203 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Ohio State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -30.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2023 Schedule
Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Michigan State vs Central Michigan | -14.0W31–7 | 45.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Michigan State vs Richmond | -29.5W45–14 | 43.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Michigan State vs Washington | +14.5L7–41 | 57.0 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Michigan State vs Maryland | +7.0L9–31 | 52.5 | L9–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Michigan State at Iowa | +10.0L16–26 | 36.5 | L16–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Michigan State at Rutgers | +4.0L24–27 | 38.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +25.5L0–49 | 47.0 | L0–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Michigan State at Minnesota | +6.5L12–27 | 41.5 | L12–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Michigan State vs Nebraska | +3.0W20–17 | 34.5 | W20–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Michigan State at Ohio State | +30.5L3–38 | 48.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Michigan State at Indiana | +3.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +20.0L0–42 | 42.0 | L0–42 | U | N |
Ohio State 2023 Schedule
Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Ohio State at Indiana | -30.0W23–3 | 59.0 | W23–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Ohio State vs Youngstown State | -45.5W35–7 | 56.0 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Ohio State vs Western Kentucky | -29.5W63–10 | 65.0 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ohio State at Notre Dame | -3.0W17–14 | 55.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Ohio State vs Maryland | -17.0W37–17 | 56.5 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Ohio State at Purdue | -17.5W41–7 | 53.0 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Ohio State vs Penn State | -4.0W20–12 | 47.0 | W20–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Ohio State at Wisconsin | -14.5W24–10 | 48.0 | W24–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Ohio State at Rutgers | -19.0W35–16 | 42.5 | W35–16 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Ohio State vs Michigan State | -30.5W38–3 | 48.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Ohio State vs Minnesota | -27.5W37–3 | 51.5 | W37–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Ohio State at Michigan | +3.0L24–30 | 47.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Fri 12/29 | Ohio State vs Missouri | -4.0L3–14 | 51.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +34.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ohio State
91.8 — 3.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio State won by 35
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Harlon Barnett #1
0–1 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 3
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 3
#1
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
48–6 (89%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brian Hartline
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓