San Diego State at Nevada Week 8 College Football Matchup San Diego State at Nevada Matchup - Week 8
Sun, Oct 23 2022 · Week 8 · 🏟 Mackay Stadium Reno, NV · Turf · 26,000 cap
San Diego State✈ 490 miSame TZ
23 7
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
29
Nevada
13
P&R Line San Diego State -15.5
P&R Total O/U 41.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San Diego State -7.5 · O/U 36.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Nevada, while Game Control favors San Diego State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Nevada wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -7.5
O/U 36.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San Diego State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 San Diego State Coming off BYE
San Diego State 2022 Schedule
San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3San Diego State vs Arizona-6.0L20–3846.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/10San Diego State vs Idaho State-33.5W38–750.5W38–7UN
Sat 9/17San Diego State at Utah+21.5L7–3548.0L7–35UN
Sat 9/24San Diego State vs Toledo+2.5W17–1444.5W17–14UY
Fri 9/30San Diego State at Boise State+6.0L13–3538.0L13–35ON
Sat 10/8San Diego State vs Hawai'i-23.5W16–1448.5W16–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22San Diego State at Nevada-7.5W23–736.0W23–7UY
Sat 10/29San Diego State at Fresno State+10.0L28–3243.5L28–32OY
Sat 11/5San Diego State vs UNLV-5.0W14–1047.0W14–10UN
Sat 11/12San Diego State vs San José State+2.5W43–2741.0W43–27OY
Fri 11/18San Diego State at New Mexico-15.0W34–1036.0W34–10OY
Sat 11/26San Diego State vs Air Force+2.0L3–1343.5L3–13UN
Sat 12/24San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee-7.0L23–2547.0L23–25ON
Nevada 2022 Schedule
Nevada's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27Nevada at New Mexico State-7.0W23–1248.0W23–12UY
Sat 9/3Nevada vs Texas State+2.0W38–1451.5W38–14OY
Sat 9/10Nevada vs Incarnate Word-4.0L41–5561.5L41–55ON
Sat 9/17Nevada at Iowa+24.0L0–2739.0L0–27UN
Fri 9/23Nevada at Air Force+24.0L20–4847.0L20–48ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/7Nevada vs Colorado State-3.5L14–1744.0L14–17UN
Sat 10/15Nevada at Hawai'i-6.5L16–3151.5L16–31UN
Sat 10/22Nevada vs San Diego State+7.5L7–2336.0L7–23UN
Sat 10/29Nevada at San José State+24.5L28–3544.5L28–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/12Nevada vs Boise State+21.0L3–4147.0L3–41UN
Sat 11/19Nevada vs Fresno State+22.5L14–4154.0L14–41ON
Sat 11/26Nevada at UNLV+12.5L22–2749.0L22–27UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
San Diego State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State
+0.401
Nevada
+0.097
San Diego State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+0.655
Nevada
+0.297
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State
0.190
Nevada
0.187
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+6.894
Nevada
+6.000
San Diego State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State
+0.817
Nevada
+0.723
San Diego State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State
69.7
Nevada
72.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
3.6
Nevada
-21.6
Offense Rating
San Diego State
16.6
Nevada
4.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
Nevada
26.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Nevada Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #98
0.20
Nevada #123
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #67
1.60
Nevada #124
1.00
Nevada +0.47
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San Diego State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
41.0
Nevada #1
30.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #54
42.2
Nevada #128
59.1
San Diego State +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
16–6 (73%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Jeff Hecklinski Yr 2 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Nevada
Ken Wilson #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Derek Sage Yr 1 #1
DC Kwame Agyeman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself