San Diego State at Boise State Week 5 College Football Matchup San Diego State at Boise State Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Oct 1 2022 · Week 5 · 🏟 Albertsons Stadium Boise, ID · Turf · 36,387 cap
San Diego State✈ 749 mi+1 hr TZ
13 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
15
Boise State
27
P&R Line Boise State -12.5
P&R Total O/U 42
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Boise State -6 · O/U 38.0
Matchup Prediction
Boise State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Boise State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Boise State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Boise State -6
O/U 38.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boise State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2022 Schedule
San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3San Diego State vs Arizona-6.0L20–3846.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/10San Diego State vs Idaho State-33.5W38–750.5W38–7UN
Sat 9/17San Diego State at Utah+21.5L7–3548.0L7–35UN
Sat 9/24San Diego State vs Toledo+2.5W17–1444.5W17–14UY
Fri 9/30San Diego State at Boise State+6.0L13–3538.0L13–35ON
Sat 10/8San Diego State vs Hawai'i-23.5W16–1448.5W16–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22San Diego State at Nevada-7.5W23–736.0W23–7UY
Sat 10/29San Diego State at Fresno State+10.0L28–3243.5L28–32OY
Sat 11/5San Diego State vs UNLV-5.0W14–1047.0W14–10UN
Sat 11/12San Diego State vs San José State+2.5W43–2741.0W43–27OY
Fri 11/18San Diego State at New Mexico-15.0W34–1036.0W34–10OY
Sat 11/26San Diego State vs Air Force+2.0L3–1343.5L3–13UN
Sat 12/24San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee-7.0L23–2547.0L23–25ON
Boise State 2022 Schedule
Boise State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Boise State at Oregon State+2.0L17–3455.5L17–34UN
Fri 9/9Boise State at New Mexico-17.0W31–1443.5W31–14ON
Sat 9/17Boise State vs UT Martin-24.5W30–753.5W30–7UN
Fri 9/23Boise State at UTEP-16.0L10–2744.5L10–27UN
Fri 9/30Boise State vs San Diego State-6.0W35–1338.0W35–13OY
Sat 10/8Boise State vs Fresno State-9.0W40–2045.0W40–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Boise State at Air Force+2.5W19–1446.5W19–14UY
Sat 10/29Boise State vs Colorado State-25.0W49–1042.5W49–10OY
Sat 11/5Boise State vs BYU-9.5L28–3154.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/12Boise State at Nevada-21.0W41–347.0W41–3UY
Sat 11/19Boise State at Wyoming-14.5W20–1744.5W20–17UN
Fri 11/25Boise State vs Utah State-17.0W42–2351.5W42–23OY
Sat 12/3Boise State vs Fresno State-3.0L16–2854.5L16–28UN
Sat 12/17Boise State vs North Texas-12.0W35–3263.0W35–32ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Boise State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State
+0.230
Boise State
+0.288
Boise State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+0.421
Boise State
+0.513
Boise State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State
0.190
Boise State
0.184
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+6.305
Boise State
+7.222
Boise State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State
+0.734
Boise State
+0.804
Boise State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State
69.7
Boise State
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boise State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
3.6
Boise State
3.2
Offense Rating
San Diego State
16.6
Boise State
18.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
Boise State
14.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Boise State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #98
0.00
Boise State #9
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #67
2.00
Boise State #15
0.25
Boise State +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boise State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
35.7
Boise State #1
52.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #54
49.4
Boise State #21
35.8
Boise State +16.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boise State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boise State
49.4 — 25.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Boise State won by 22
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Boise State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
16–6 (73%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Jeff Hecklinski Yr 2 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tim Plough Yr 2 #1
DC Spencer Danielson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself