Sat, Oct 1 2022
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Albertsons Stadium
Boise, ID
·
Turf
·
36,387 cap
San Diego State✈ 749 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boise State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boise State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Boise State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Boise State -6
O/U 38.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boise State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2022 Schedule
San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | San Diego State vs Arizona | -6.0L20–38 | 46.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | San Diego State vs Idaho State | -33.5W38–7 | 50.5 | W38–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | San Diego State at Utah | +21.5L7–35 | 48.0 | L7–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | San Diego State vs Toledo | +2.5W17–14 | 44.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | San Diego State at Boise State | +6.0L13–35 | 38.0 | L13–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | San Diego State vs Hawai'i | -23.5W16–14 | 48.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | San Diego State at Nevada | -7.5W23–7 | 36.0 | W23–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | San Diego State at Fresno State | +10.0L28–32 | 43.5 | L28–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | San Diego State vs UNLV | -5.0W14–10 | 47.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | San Diego State vs San José State | +2.5W43–27 | 41.0 | W43–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/18 | San Diego State at New Mexico | -15.0W34–10 | 36.0 | W34–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | San Diego State vs Air Force | +2.0L3–13 | 43.5 | L3–13 | U | N |
| Sat 12/24 | San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee | -7.0L23–25 | 47.0 | L23–25 | O | N |
Boise State 2022 Schedule
Boise State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Boise State at Oregon State | +2.0L17–34 | 55.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Boise State at New Mexico | -17.0W31–14 | 43.5 | W31–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Boise State vs UT Martin | -24.5W30–7 | 53.5 | W30–7 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Boise State at UTEP | -16.0L10–27 | 44.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/30 | Boise State vs San Diego State | -6.0W35–13 | 38.0 | W35–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -9.0W40–20 | 45.0 | W40–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Boise State at Air Force | +2.5W19–14 | 46.5 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Boise State vs Colorado State | -25.0W49–10 | 42.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Boise State vs BYU | -9.5L28–31 | 54.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Boise State at Nevada | -21.0W41–3 | 47.0 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Boise State at Wyoming | -14.5W20–17 | 44.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Boise State vs Utah State | -17.0W42–23 | 51.5 | W42–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -3.0L16–28 | 54.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Boise State vs North Texas | -12.0W35–32 | 63.0 | W35–32 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +16.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boise State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boise State
49.4 — 25.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Boise State won by 22
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boise State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
16–6 (73%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jeff Hecklinski
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kurt Mattix
Yr 2
#1
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tim Plough
Yr 2
#1
DC
Spencer Danielson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

