Sat, Sep 3 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego, CA
·
Turf
·
35,000 cap
Arizona✈ 361 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -6
O/U 46.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San Diego State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona 2022 Schedule
Arizona's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arizona at San Diego State | +6.0W38–20 | 46.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arizona vs Mississippi State | +11.5L17–39 | 57.5 | L17–39 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Arizona vs North Dakota State | +3.0W31–28 | 49.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Arizona at California | +3.5L31–49 | 50.0 | L31–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arizona vs Colorado | -17.5W43–20 | 57.5 | W43–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arizona vs Oregon | +13.5L22–49 | 70.5 | L22–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arizona at Washington | +14.5L39–49 | 71.5 | L39–49 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Arizona vs USC | +14.0L37–45 | 74.0 | L37–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Arizona at Utah | +17.5L20–45 | 67.5 | L20–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arizona at UCLA | +19.5W34–28 | 76.5 | W34–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Arizona vs Washington State | +4.0L20–31 | 63.0 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Arizona vs Arizona State | -4.0W38–35 | 66.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
San Diego State 2022 Schedule
San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | San Diego State vs Arizona | -6.0L20–38 | 46.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | San Diego State vs Idaho State | -33.5W38–7 | 50.5 | W38–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | San Diego State at Utah | +21.5L7–35 | 48.0 | L7–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | San Diego State vs Toledo | +2.5W17–14 | 44.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | San Diego State at Boise State | +6.0L13–35 | 38.0 | L13–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | San Diego State vs Hawai'i | -23.5W16–14 | 48.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | San Diego State at Nevada | -7.5W23–7 | 36.0 | W23–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | San Diego State at Fresno State | +10.0L28–32 | 43.5 | L28–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | San Diego State vs UNLV | -5.0W14–10 | 47.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | San Diego State vs San José State | +2.5W43–27 | 41.0 | W43–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/18 | San Diego State at New Mexico | -15.0W34–10 | 36.0 | W34–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | San Diego State vs Air Force | +2.0L3–13 | 43.5 | L3–13 | U | N |
| Sat 12/24 | San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee | -7.0L23–25 | 47.0 | L23–25 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on San Diego State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona
Jedd Fisch #1
1–11 (8%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brennan Carroll
Yr 2
#1
DC
Johnny Nansen
Yr 1
#1
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
16–6 (73%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jeff Hecklinski
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kurt Mattix
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓