Sun, Sep 11 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego, CA
·
Turf
·
35,000 cap
Idaho State✈ 742 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
San Diego State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -33.5
O/U 50.5
consensus
Idaho State 2022 Schedule
Idaho State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Idaho State at UNLV | +23.0L21–52 | 50.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Idaho State at San Diego State | +33.5L7–38 | 50.5 | L7–38 | U | Y |
San Diego State 2022 Schedule
San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | San Diego State vs Arizona | -6.0L20–38 | 46.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | San Diego State vs Idaho State | -33.5W38–7 | 50.5 | W38–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | San Diego State at Utah | +21.5L7–35 | 48.0 | L7–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | San Diego State vs Toledo | +2.5W17–14 | 44.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | San Diego State at Boise State | +6.0L13–35 | 38.0 | L13–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | San Diego State vs Hawai'i | -23.5W16–14 | 48.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | San Diego State at Nevada | -7.5W23–7 | 36.0 | W23–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | San Diego State at Fresno State | +10.0L28–32 | 43.5 | L28–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | San Diego State vs UNLV | -5.0W14–10 | 47.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | San Diego State vs San José State | +2.5W43–27 | 41.0 | W43–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/18 | San Diego State at New Mexico | -15.0W34–10 | 36.0 | W34–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | San Diego State vs Air Force | +2.0L3–13 | 43.5 | L3–13 | U | N |
| Sat 12/24 | San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee | -7.0L23–25 | 47.0 | L23–25 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho State Edge
Idaho State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +62.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓