Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA
·
Turf
·
68,400 cap
Tennessee✈ 375 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Tennessee wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Tennessee wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -6
O/U 63.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Tennessee
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Tennessee 2022 Schedule
Tennessee's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Tennessee vs Ball State | -37.0W59–10 | 66.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Tennessee at Pittsburgh | -6.0W34–27 | 63.0 | W34–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Tennessee vs Akron | -47.5W63–6 | 67.0 | W63–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Tennessee vs Florida | -11.0W38–33 | 62.0 | W38–33 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Tennessee at LSU | -2.5W40–13 | 63.0 | W40–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Tennessee vs Alabama | +9.0W52–49 | 68.0 | W52–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Tennessee vs UT Martin | -38.5W65–24 | 71.5 | W65–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Tennessee vs Kentucky | -10.5W44–6 | 62.5 | W44–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Tennessee at Georgia | +9.5L13–27 | 65.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Tennessee vs Missouri | -18.5W66–24 | 57.5 | W66–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Tennessee at South Carolina | -22.5L38–63 | 66.5 | L38–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Tennessee at Vanderbilt | -14.0W56–0 | 63.5 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | Tennessee vs Clemson | +4.0W31–14 | 62.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
Pittsburgh 2022 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Pittsburgh vs West Virginia | -7.5W38–31 | 50.0 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Pittsburgh vs Tennessee | +6.0L27–34 | 63.0 | L27–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Pittsburgh at Western Michigan | -10.0W34–13 | 46.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Pittsburgh vs Rhode Island | -32.5W45–24 | 55.0 | W45–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech | -21.5L21–26 | 47.0 | L21–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech | -14.5W45–29 | 42.0 | W45–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Pittsburgh at Louisville | +1.5L10–24 | 55.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Pittsburgh at North Carolina | +2.5L24–42 | 65.5 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Pittsburgh vs Syracuse | -3.5W19–9 | 47.5 | W19–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Pittsburgh at Virginia | -5.5W37–7 | 41.5 | W37–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Pittsburgh vs Duke | -6.5W28–26 | 49.0 | W28–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Pittsburgh at Miami | -5.5W42–16 | 43.0 | W42–16 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | Pittsburgh vs UCLA | +9.0W37–35 | 55.0 | W37–35 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +4.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +59.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Tennessee
31.6 — 52.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Alex Golesh
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 2
#1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
53–37 (59%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Frank Cignetti Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓