Sun, Oct 23 2022
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 343 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisville,
while Game Control favors Pittsburgh.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisville -1.5
O/U 55.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Pittsburgh 2022 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Pittsburgh vs West Virginia | -7.5W38–31 | 50.0 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Pittsburgh vs Tennessee | +6.0L27–34 | 63.0 | L27–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Pittsburgh at Western Michigan | -10.0W34–13 | 46.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Pittsburgh vs Rhode Island | -32.5W45–24 | 55.0 | W45–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech | -21.5L21–26 | 47.0 | L21–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech | -14.5W45–29 | 42.0 | W45–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Pittsburgh at Louisville | +1.5L10–24 | 55.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Pittsburgh at North Carolina | +2.5L24–42 | 65.5 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Pittsburgh vs Syracuse | -3.5W19–9 | 47.5 | W19–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Pittsburgh at Virginia | -5.5W37–7 | 41.5 | W37–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Pittsburgh vs Duke | -6.5W28–26 | 49.0 | W28–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Pittsburgh at Miami | -5.5W42–16 | 43.0 | W42–16 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | Pittsburgh vs UCLA | +9.0W37–35 | 55.0 | W37–35 | O | Y |
Louisville 2022 Schedule
Louisville's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Louisville at Syracuse | -6.0L7–31 | 55.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Louisville at UCF | +5.5W20–14 | 62.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/16 | Louisville vs Florida State | +2.5L31–35 | 57.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Louisville vs South Florida | -15.5W41–3 | 63.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Louisville at Boston College | -13.5L33–34 | 48.5 | L33–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Louisville at Virginia | +1.5W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Louisville vs Wake Forest | +3.0W48–21 | 66.5 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -6.5W34–10 | 53.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Louisville at Clemson | +7.0L16–31 | 52.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Louisville vs NC State | -4.0W25–10 | 43.0 | W25–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Louisville at Kentucky | +3.5L13–26 | 42.5 | L13–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Louisville vs Cincinnati | -2.5W24–7 | 38.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Pittsburgh Edge
Pittsburgh +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Louisville
32.4 — 24.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisville won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
53–37 (59%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Frank Cignetti Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 2
#1
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Lance Taylor
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓