Texas State at Coastal Carolina Week 12 College Football Matchup Texas State at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 20 2021 · Week 12 · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
Texas State✈ 1,140 mi+1 hr TZ
21 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas State
15
CCU -24.5
Coastal Carolina
45
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -29.5
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -24.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -24.5
O/U 60.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Coastal Carolina 2nd straight Home Game
Texas State 2021 Schedule
Texas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Texas State vs Baylor+13.5L20–2952.5L20–29UY
Sat 9/11Texas State at Florida International+2.0W23–1755.5W23–17UY
Sat 9/18Texas State vs Incarnate Word-10.5L34–4270.0L34–42ON
Sat 9/25Texas State at Eastern Michigan+7.5L21–5962.0L21–59ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9Texas State vs South Alabama+4.0W33–3152.5W33–31OY
Sat 10/16Texas State vs Troy+7.5L28–3149.0L28–31OY
Sat 10/23Texas State at Georgia State+10.0L16–2858.5L16–28UN
Sat 10/30Texas State at Louisiana+21.0L0–4558.0L0–45UN
Sat 11/6Texas State vs UL Monroe-3.0W27–1957.5W27–19UY
Sat 11/13Texas State vs Georgia Southern-2.5L30–3852.0L30–38ON
Sat 11/20Texas State at Coastal Carolina+24.5L21–3560.5L21–35UY
Sat 11/27Texas State at Arkansas State+2.0W24–2262.0W24–22UY
Coastal Carolina 2021 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-33.5W52–1454.5W52–14OY
Sat 9/4Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-29
Fri 9/10Coastal Carolina vs Kansas-26.5W49–2252.0W49–22OY
Sat 9/18Coastal Carolina at Buffalo-14.0W28–2558.0W28–25UN
Sat 9/25Coastal Carolina vs Massachusetts-36.0W53–366.0W53–3UY
Sat 10/2Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe-33.5W59–657.5W59–6OY
Thu 10/7Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State-20.5W52–2074.5W52–20UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/20Coastal Carolina at App State-4.5L27–3061.0L27–30UN
Thu 10/28Coastal Carolina vs Troy-17.0W35–2850.0W35–28ON
Sat 11/6Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern-16.0W28–856.5W28–8UY
Sat 11/13Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-12.5L40–4253.5L40–42ON
Sat 11/20Coastal Carolina vs Texas State-24.5W35–2160.5W35–21UN
Fri 11/26Coastal Carolina at South Alabama-14.5W27–2155.5W27–21UN
Fri 12/17Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois-11.0W47–4163.0W47–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas State
+0.355
Coastal Carolina
+0.761
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas State
+0.450
Coastal Carolina
+1.013
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas State
0.148
Coastal Carolina
0.189
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Coastal Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas State
+8.153
Coastal Carolina
+9.128
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas State
+0.823
Coastal Carolina
+1.014
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas State
73.2
Coastal Carolina
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas State
1.5
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
Texas State
17.8
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas State
16.3
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas State #49
0.44
Coastal Carolina #22
2.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #105
1.89
Coastal Carolina #19
0.33
Coastal Carolina +1.89
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas State #1
21.8
Coastal Carolina #1
82.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #108
61.7
Coastal Carolina #2
7.5
Coastal Carolina +60.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
6–21 (22%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Jacob Peeler Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Spavital Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
22–17 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Willy Korn Yr 1 #1
DC Chad Staggs Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself