Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Rynearson Stadium
Ypsilanti, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
Texas State✈ 1,165 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Eastern Michigan wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Eastern Michigan -7.5
O/U 62.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Eastern Michigan
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2021 Schedule
Texas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas State vs Baylor | +13.5L20–29 | 52.5 | L20–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas State at Florida International | +2.0W23–17 | 55.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas State vs Incarnate Word | -10.5L34–42 | 70.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas State at Eastern Michigan | +7.5L21–59 | 62.0 | L21–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Texas State vs South Alabama | +4.0W33–31 | 52.5 | W33–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas State vs Troy | +7.5L28–31 | 49.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Texas State at Georgia State | +10.0L16–28 | 58.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Texas State at Louisiana | +21.0L0–45 | 58.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0W27–19 | 57.5 | W27–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5L30–38 | 52.0 | L30–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas State at Coastal Carolina | +24.5L21–35 | 60.5 | L21–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Texas State at Arkansas State | +2.0W24–22 | 62.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
Eastern Michigan 2021 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA) | -34.0W35–15 | 54.5 | W35–15 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin | +26.0L7–34 | 52.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts | -22.0W42–28 | 56.5 | W42–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Eastern Michigan vs Texas State | -7.5W59–21 | 62.0 | W59–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois | +0.0L20–27 | 62.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH) | +2.5W13–12 | 58.0 | W13–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Eastern Michigan vs Ball State | +1.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green | -4.5W55–24 | 49.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Eastern Michigan at Toledo | +9.0W52–49 | 54.5 | W52–49 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/9 | Eastern Michigan vs Ohio | -6.0L26–34 | 61.5 | L26–34 | U | N |
| Tue 11/16 | Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan | +6.0W22–21 | 66.0 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan | +8.5L10–31 | 64.0 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Eastern Michigan vs Liberty | +9.5L20–56 | 58.5 | L20–56 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +31.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Eastern Michigan
5 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Eastern Michigan
94.4 — 3.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Eastern Michigan won by 38
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jacob Peeler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Spavital
Yr 1
#1
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
32–52 (38%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Chris Creighton
Yr 1
#1
DC
Neal Neathery
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓