Troy at Coastal Carolina Week 9 College Football Matchup Troy at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 9
Thu, Oct 28 2021 · Week 9 · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
Troy✈ 425 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
28 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Troy
16
Coastal Carolina
38
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -22
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -17 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -17
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Troy Coming off BYE
Troy 2021 Schedule
Troy's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Troy vs Southern-25.0W55–355.0W55–3OY
Sat 9/11Troy vs Liberty+3.0L13–2162.5L13–21UN
Sat 9/18Troy at Southern Miss-11.0W21–949.0W21–9UY
Sat 9/25Troy at UL Monroe-23.5L16–2949.5L16–29UN
Sat 10/2Troy at South Carolina+6.5L14–2343.0L14–23UN
Sat 10/9Troy vs Georgia Southern-5.5W27–2451.0W27–24UN
Sat 10/16Troy at Texas State-7.5W31–2849.0W31–28ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/28Troy at Coastal Carolina+17.0L28–3550.0L28–35OY
Sat 11/6Troy vs South Alabama-3.5W31–2447.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/13Troy vs Louisiana+6.5L21–3548.0L21–35ON
Sat 11/20Troy vs App State+10.0L7–4551.0L7–45ON
Sat 11/27Troy at Georgia State+6.5L10–3749.5L10–37UN
Coastal Carolina 2021 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-33.5W52–1454.5W52–14OY
Sat 9/4Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-29
Fri 9/10Coastal Carolina vs Kansas-26.5W49–2252.0W49–22OY
Sat 9/18Coastal Carolina at Buffalo-14.0W28–2558.0W28–25UN
Sat 9/25Coastal Carolina vs Massachusetts-36.0W53–366.0W53–3UY
Sat 10/2Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe-33.5W59–657.5W59–6OY
Thu 10/7Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State-20.5W52–2074.5W52–20UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/20Coastal Carolina at App State-4.5L27–3061.0L27–30UN
Thu 10/28Coastal Carolina vs Troy-17.0W35–2850.0W35–28ON
Sat 11/6Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern-16.0W28–856.5W28–8UY
Sat 11/13Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-12.5L40–4253.5L40–42ON
Sat 11/20Coastal Carolina vs Texas State-24.5W35–2160.5W35–21UN
Fri 11/26Coastal Carolina at South Alabama-14.5W27–2155.5W27–21UN
Fri 12/17Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois-11.0W47–4163.0W47–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Troy
+0.295
Coastal Carolina
+0.580
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Troy
+0.451
Coastal Carolina
+0.846
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Troy
0.183
Coastal Carolina
0.189
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Coastal Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Troy
+6.897
Coastal Carolina
+8.834
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Troy
+0.796
Coastal Carolina
+0.918
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Troy
69.8
Coastal Carolina
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Troy Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Troy Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Troy
-12.2
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
Troy
9.7
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Troy
21.8
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Troy #125
0.33
Coastal Carolina #22
3.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #96
0.33
Coastal Carolina #19
0.17
Coastal Carolina +2.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Troy #1
55.9
Coastal Carolina #1
86.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #83
32.3
Coastal Carolina #2
4.5
Coastal Carolina +30.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Coastal Carolina
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
82.7 — 8.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Troy
Chip Lindsey #1
12–14 (46%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Luke Meadows Yr 1 #1
DC Brandon Hall Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
22–17 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Willy Korn Yr 1 #1
DC Chad Staggs Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself