Sat, Oct 9 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
San Marcos, TX
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
South Alabama✈ 592 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas State,
while Game Control favors South Alabama.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -4
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2021 Schedule
South Alabama's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | -2.0W31–7 | 56.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | South Alabama at Bowling Green | -14.5W22–19 | 48.0 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | South Alabama vs Alcorn State | -21.5W28–21 | 44.5 | W28–21 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | +12.0L18–20 | 52.5 | L18–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | South Alabama at Texas State | -4.0L31–33 | 52.5 | L31–33 | O | N |
| Thu 10/14 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W41–14 | 49.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -13.5L31–41 | 51.5 | L31–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -9.5W31–13 | 67.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | South Alabama at Troy | +3.5L24–31 | 47.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | South Alabama at App State | +21.5L7–31 | 51.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | South Alabama at Tennessee | +28.5L14–60 | 61.5 | L14–60 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | +14.5L21–27 | 55.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
Texas State 2021 Schedule
Texas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas State vs Baylor | +13.5L20–29 | 52.5 | L20–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas State at Florida International | +2.0W23–17 | 55.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas State vs Incarnate Word | -10.5L34–42 | 70.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas State at Eastern Michigan | +7.5L21–59 | 62.0 | L21–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Texas State vs South Alabama | +4.0W33–31 | 52.5 | W33–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas State vs Troy | +7.5L28–31 | 49.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Texas State at Georgia State | +10.0L16–28 | 58.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Texas State at Louisiana | +21.0L0–45 | 58.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0W27–19 | 57.5 | W27–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5L30–38 | 52.0 | L30–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas State at Coastal Carolina | +24.5L21–35 | 60.5 | L21–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Texas State at Arkansas State | +2.0W24–22 | 62.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +19.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Alabama
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Alabama
16.9 — 60.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas State won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Kane Wommack #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Major Applewhite
Yr 1
#1
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 1
#1
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jacob Peeler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Spavital
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓