Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State Week 6 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State Matchup - Week 6
Thu, Oct 7 2021 · Week 6 · 🏟 Centennial Bank Stadium Jonesboro, AR · Turf · 30,964 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 675 mi-1 hr TZ
52 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
48
Arkansas State
20
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -28
P&R Total O/U 68
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -20.5 · O/U 74.5
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -20.5
O/U 74.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Coastal Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2021 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-33.5W52–1454.5W52–14OY
Sat 9/4Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-29
Fri 9/10Coastal Carolina vs Kansas-26.5W49–2252.0W49–22OY
Sat 9/18Coastal Carolina at Buffalo-14.0W28–2558.0W28–25UN
Sat 9/25Coastal Carolina vs Massachusetts-36.0W53–366.0W53–3UY
Sat 10/2Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe-33.5W59–657.5W59–6OY
Thu 10/7Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State-20.5W52–2074.5W52–20UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/20Coastal Carolina at App State-4.5L27–3061.0L27–30UN
Thu 10/28Coastal Carolina vs Troy-17.0W35–2850.0W35–28ON
Sat 11/6Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern-16.0W28–856.5W28–8UY
Sat 11/13Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-12.5L40–4253.5L40–42ON
Sat 11/20Coastal Carolina vs Texas State-24.5W35–2160.5W35–21UN
Fri 11/26Coastal Carolina at South Alabama-14.5W27–2155.5W27–21UN
Fri 12/17Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois-11.0W47–4163.0W47–41ON
Arkansas State 2021 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-13.5W40–2164.0W40–21UY
Sat 9/11Arkansas State vs Memphis+5.5L50–5565.0L50–55OY
Sat 9/18Arkansas State at Washington+17.5L3–5258.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/25Arkansas State at Tulsa+14.5L34–4165.0L34–41OY
Sat 10/2Arkansas State at Georgia Southern+1.5L33–5966.5L33–59ON
Thu 10/7Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+20.5L20–5274.5L20–52UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/21Arkansas State vs Louisiana+17.0L27–2870.0L27–28UY
Sat 10/30Arkansas State at South Alabama+9.5L13–3167.0L13–31UN
Sat 11/6Arkansas State vs App State+21.5L14–4867.5L14–48UN
Sat 11/13Arkansas State at UL Monroe+3.0W27–2466.5W27–24UY
Sat 11/20Arkansas State at Georgia State+15.5L20–2866.0L20–28UY
Sat 11/27Arkansas State vs Texas State-2.0L22–2462.0L22–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina
+0.796
Arkansas State
+0.346
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina
+0.923
Arkansas State
+0.515
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina
0.189
Arkansas State
0.194
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arkansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina
+9.456
Arkansas State
+7.402
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina
+0.987
Arkansas State
+0.775
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina
70.7
Arkansas State
74.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Coastal Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Arkansas State
-18.1
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Arkansas State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Arkansas State
24.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #22
3.00
Arkansas State #112
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #19
0.25
Arkansas State #116
1.60
Coastal Carolina +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
92.5
Arkansas State #1
19.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #2
2.4
Arkansas State #124
70.4
Coastal Carolina +73.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
22–17 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Willy Korn Yr 1 #1
DC Chad Staggs Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
1–2 (33%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Keith Heckendorf Yr 1 #1
DC Rob Harley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself