Northern Illinois at Coastal Carolina Week 1 College Football Matchup Northern Illinois at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Dec 17 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Orlando City Stadium Orlanda, FL · Turf
Northern Illinois✈ 725 mi+1 hr TZ Coastal Carolina✈ 107 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
41 47
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northern Illinois
22
Coastal Carolina
42
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -20.5
P&R Total O/U 63.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -11 · O/U 63.0
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -11
O/U 63.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2021 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech+19.0W22–2157.0W22–21UY
Sat 9/11Northern Illinois vs Wyoming+7.0L43–5044.0L43–50OY
Sat 9/18Northern Illinois at Michigan+27.5L10–6354.5L10–63ON
Sat 9/25Northern Illinois vs Maine-21.5W41–1462.0W41–14UY
Sat 10/2Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan+0.0W27–2062.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/9Northern Illinois at Toledo+13.0W22–2051.5W22–20UY
Sat 10/16Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green-9.0W34–2644.5W34–26ON
Sat 10/23Northern Illinois at Central Michigan+6.0W39–3856.0W39–38OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Northern Illinois at Kent State+3.5L47–5272.0L47–52ON
Wed 11/10Northern Illinois vs Ball State+3.0W30–2959.5W30–29UY
Wed 11/17Northern Illinois at Buffalo-2.0W33–2759.5W33–27OY
Tue 11/23Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+6.5L21–4260.0L21–42ON
Sat 12/4Northern Illinois vs Kent State+3.5W41–2375.5W41–23UY
Fri 12/17Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina+11.0L41–4763.0L41–47OY
Coastal Carolina 2021 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-33.5W52–1454.5W52–14OY
Sat 9/4Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel-29
Fri 9/10Coastal Carolina vs Kansas-26.5W49–2252.0W49–22OY
Sat 9/18Coastal Carolina at Buffalo-14.0W28–2558.0W28–25UN
Sat 9/25Coastal Carolina vs Massachusetts-36.0W53–366.0W53–3UY
Sat 10/2Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe-33.5W59–657.5W59–6OY
Thu 10/7Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State-20.5W52–2074.5W52–20UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/20Coastal Carolina at App State-4.5L27–3061.0L27–30UN
Thu 10/28Coastal Carolina vs Troy-17.0W35–2850.0W35–28ON
Sat 11/6Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern-16.0W28–856.5W28–8UY
Sat 11/13Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-12.5L40–4253.5L40–42ON
Sat 11/20Coastal Carolina vs Texas State-24.5W35–2160.5W35–21UN
Fri 11/26Coastal Carolina at South Alabama-14.5W27–2155.5W27–21UN
Fri 12/17Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois-11.0W47–4163.0W47–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northern Illinois
+0.483
Coastal Carolina
+0.804
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois
+0.608
Coastal Carolina
+0.944
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois
0.134
Coastal Carolina
0.189
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Coastal Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois
+8.211
Coastal Carolina
+9.316
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois
+0.872
Coastal Carolina
+1.025
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois
70.9
Coastal Carolina
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Coastal Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northern Illinois
-17.8
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
Northern Illinois
8.5
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northern Illinois
26.3
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Northern Illinois #47
1.25
Coastal Carolina #22
1.91
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #134
1.42
Coastal Carolina #19
0.46
Coastal Carolina +0.66
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northern Illinois #1
39.3
Coastal Carolina #1
79.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #82
46.3
Coastal Carolina #2
9.5
Coastal Carolina +40.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Coastal Carolina
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
49.6 — 30.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
6–15 (29%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Eric Eidsness Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Jackson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
22–17 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Willy Korn Yr 1 #1
DC Chad Staggs Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself