Fri, Dec 17 2021
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Orlando City Stadium
Orlanda, FL
·
Turf
Northern Illinois✈ 725 mi+1 hr TZ
Coastal Carolina✈ 107 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -11
O/U 63.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2021 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech | +19.0W22–21 | 57.0 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Northern Illinois vs Wyoming | +7.0L43–50 | 44.0 | L43–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Northern Illinois at Michigan | +27.5L10–63 | 54.5 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Northern Illinois vs Maine | -21.5W41–14 | 62.0 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan | +0.0W27–20 | 62.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +13.0W22–20 | 51.5 | W22–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green | -9.0W34–26 | 44.5 | W34–26 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | +6.0W39–38 | 56.0 | W39–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Northern Illinois at Kent State | +3.5L47–52 | 72.0 | L47–52 | O | N |
| Wed 11/10 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | +3.0W30–29 | 59.5 | W30–29 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/17 | Northern Illinois at Buffalo | -2.0W33–27 | 59.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/23 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | +6.5L21–42 | 60.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Northern Illinois vs Kent State | +3.5W41–23 | 75.5 | W41–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina | +11.0L41–47 | 63.0 | L41–47 | O | Y |
Coastal Carolina 2021 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel | -33.5W52–14 | 54.5 | W52–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/10 | Coastal Carolina vs Kansas | -26.5W49–22 | 52.0 | W49–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Coastal Carolina at Buffalo | -14.0W28–25 | 58.0 | W28–25 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Coastal Carolina vs Massachusetts | -36.0W53–3 | 66.0 | W53–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe | -33.5W59–6 | 57.5 | W59–6 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/7 | Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State | -20.5W52–20 | 74.5 | W52–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/20 | Coastal Carolina at App State | -4.5L27–30 | 61.0 | L27–30 | U | N |
| Thu 10/28 | Coastal Carolina vs Troy | -17.0W35–28 | 50.0 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern | -16.0W28–8 | 56.5 | W28–8 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State | -12.5L40–42 | 53.5 | L40–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Coastal Carolina vs Texas State | -24.5W35–21 | 60.5 | W35–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Coastal Carolina at South Alabama | -14.5W27–21 | 55.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Fri 12/17 | Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois | -11.0W47–41 | 63.0 | W47–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +0.66
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +40.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Coastal Carolina
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
49.6 — 30.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
6–15 (29%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Eric Eidsness
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Jackson
Yr 1
#1
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
22–17 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Willy Korn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chad Staggs
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

