Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 636 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -14
O/U 58.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2021 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel | -33.5W52–14 | 54.5 | W52–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/10 | Coastal Carolina vs Kansas | -26.5W49–22 | 52.0 | W49–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Coastal Carolina at Buffalo | -14.0W28–25 | 58.0 | W28–25 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Coastal Carolina vs Massachusetts | -36.0W53–3 | 66.0 | W53–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe | -33.5W59–6 | 57.5 | W59–6 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/7 | Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State | -20.5W52–20 | 74.5 | W52–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/20 | Coastal Carolina at App State | -4.5L27–30 | 61.0 | L27–30 | U | N |
| Thu 10/28 | Coastal Carolina vs Troy | -17.0W35–28 | 50.0 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern | -16.0W28–8 | 56.5 | W28–8 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State | -12.5L40–42 | 53.5 | L40–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Coastal Carolina vs Texas State | -24.5W35–21 | 60.5 | W35–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Coastal Carolina at South Alabama | -14.5W27–21 | 55.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Fri 12/17 | Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois | -11.0W47–41 | 63.0 | W47–41 | O | N |
Buffalo 2021 Schedule
Buffalo's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Buffalo vs Wagner | -44.0W69–7 | 54.5 | W69–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Buffalo at Nebraska | +13.5L3–28 | 54.0 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Buffalo vs Coastal Carolina | +14.0L25–28 | 58.0 | L25–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Buffalo at Old Dominion | -13.0W35–34 | 50.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +7.0L17–24 | 59.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Buffalo at Kent State | +7.0L38–48 | 66.0 | L38–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Buffalo vs Ohio | -7.5W27–26 | 54.5 | W27–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Buffalo at Akron | -13.5W45–10 | 58.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -13.5L44–56 | 51.5 | L44–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/9 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +7.0L18–45 | 58.0 | L18–45 | O | N |
| Wed 11/17 | Buffalo vs Northern Illinois | +2.0L27–33 | 59.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Buffalo at Ball State | +6.0L3–20 | 59.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +41.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Buffalo
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
7.5 — 78.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
22–17 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Willy Korn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chad Staggs
Yr 1
#1
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Cauthen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓