Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 FIU Stadium
Miami, FL
·
Turf
·
23,500 cap
Texas State✈ 1,108 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida International wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida International -2
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2021 Schedule
Texas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas State vs Baylor | +13.5L20–29 | 52.5 | L20–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas State at Florida International | +2.0W23–17 | 55.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas State vs Incarnate Word | -10.5L34–42 | 70.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas State at Eastern Michigan | +7.5L21–59 | 62.0 | L21–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Texas State vs South Alabama | +4.0W33–31 | 52.5 | W33–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas State vs Troy | +7.5L28–31 | 49.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Texas State at Georgia State | +10.0L16–28 | 58.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Texas State at Louisiana | +21.0L0–45 | 58.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0W27–19 | 57.5 | W27–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5L30–38 | 52.0 | L30–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas State at Coastal Carolina | +24.5L21–35 | 60.5 | L21–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Texas State at Arkansas State | +2.0W24–22 | 62.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
Florida International 2021 Schedule
Florida International's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Florida International vs Long Island University | -35.0W48–10 | 49.0 | W48–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida International vs Texas State | -2.0L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida International at Texas Tech | +20.5L21–54 | 54.0 | L21–54 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida International at Central Michigan | +12.0L27–31 | 55.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida International at Florida Atlantic | +10.5L21–58 | 52.0 | L21–58 | O | N |
| Fri 10/8 | Florida International vs Charlotte | +3.5L33–45 | 61.0 | L33–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Florida International vs Western Kentucky | +16.5L19–34 | 78.0 | L19–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida International at Marshall | +21.5L0–38 | 64.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida International vs Old Dominion | +3.0L24–47 | 50.0 | L24–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | +10.5L10–50 | 54.0 | L10–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida International vs North Texas | +10.0L7–49 | 57.0 | L7–49 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida International at Southern Miss | +14.5L17–37 | 45.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +79.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida International
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas State
33.9 — 44.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas State won by 6
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida International with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jacob Peeler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Spavital
Yr 1
#1
Florida International
Butch Davis #1
24–23 (51%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Andrew Breiner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Everett Withers
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓