Ball State at Eastern Michigan Week 7 College Football Matchup Ball State at Eastern Michigan Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 16 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Rynearson Stadium Ypsilanti, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Ball State✈ 168 miSame TZ
38 31
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
25
Eastern Michigan
31
P&R Line Eastern Michigan -6
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ball State -1.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Eastern Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Eastern Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Eastern Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ball State -1.5
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Eastern Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Eastern Michigan 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Ball State 2nd straight Road Game
Ball State 2021 Schedule
Ball State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Ball State vs Western Illinois-31.0W31–2158.5W31–21UN
Sat 9/11Ball State at Penn State+23.0L13–4458.0L13–44UN
Sat 9/18Ball State at Wyoming+6.5L12–4553.5L12–45ON
Sat 9/25Ball State vs Toledo+4.5L12–2256.5L12–22UN
Sat 10/2Ball State vs Army+10.5W28–1646.5W28–16UY
Sat 10/9Ball State at Western Michigan+13.0W45–2057.5W45–20OY
Sat 10/16Ball State at Eastern Michigan-1.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Sat 10/23Ball State vs Miami (OH)-3.5L17–2453.0L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Ball State at Akron-20.0W31–2558.0W31–25UN
Wed 11/10Ball State at Northern Illinois-3.0L29–3059.5L29–30UN
Wed 11/17Ball State vs Central Michigan+2.5L17–3757.0L17–37UN
Tue 11/23Ball State vs Buffalo-6.0W20–359.5W20–3UY
Sat 12/25Ball State vs Georgia State+6.0L20–5152.5L20–51ON
Eastern Michigan 2021 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-34.0W35–1554.5W35–15UN
Sat 9/11Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin+26.0L7–3452.0L7–34UN
Sat 9/18Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts-22.0W42–2856.5W42–28ON
Sat 9/25Eastern Michigan vs Texas State-7.5W59–2162.0W59–21OY
Sat 10/2Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois+0.0L20–2762.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/9Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)+2.5W13–1258.0W13–12UY
Sat 10/16Eastern Michigan vs Ball State+1.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Sat 10/23Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green-4.5W55–2449.5W55–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Eastern Michigan at Toledo+9.0W52–4954.5W52–49OY
Tue 11/9Eastern Michigan vs Ohio-6.0L26–3461.5L26–34UN
Tue 11/16Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W22–2166.0W22–21UY
Fri 11/26Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan+8.5L10–3164.0L10–31UN
Sat 12/18Eastern Michigan vs Liberty+9.5L20–5658.5L20–56ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Eastern Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State
+0.424
Eastern Michigan
+0.451
Eastern Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State
+0.488
Eastern Michigan
+0.681
Eastern Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State
0.132
Eastern Michigan
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Eastern Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State
+7.776
Eastern Michigan
+8.159
Eastern Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State
+0.913
Eastern Michigan
+0.944
Eastern Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State
69.5
Eastern Michigan
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.6
Eastern Michigan
-8.6
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.5
Eastern Michigan
18.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #85
0.80
Eastern Michigan #68
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #45
1.00
Eastern Michigan #104
1.00
Eastern Michigan +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
36.1
Eastern Michigan #1
54.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #70
56.1
Eastern Michigan #99
39.2
Eastern Michigan +18.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
23–36 (39%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin Lynch Yr 1 #1
DC Tyler Stockton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
32–52 (38%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Chris Creighton Yr 1 #1
DC Neal Neathery Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself