Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin Week 2 College Football Matchup Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 11 2021 · Week 2 · 🏟 Camp Randall Stadium Madison, WI · Turf · 80,321 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 298 mi-1 hr TZ
7 34
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Eastern Michigan
11
WIS -26
Wisconsin
40
P&R Line Wisconsin -29
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Wisconsin -26 · O/U 52.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -26
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wisconsin · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Wisconsin 2nd straight Home Game
Eastern Michigan 2021 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-34.0W35–1554.5W35–15UN
Sat 9/11Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin+26.0L7–3452.0L7–34UN
Sat 9/18Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts-22.0W42–2856.5W42–28ON
Sat 9/25Eastern Michigan vs Texas State-7.5W59–2162.0W59–21OY
Sat 10/2Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois+0.0L20–2762.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/9Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)+2.5W13–1258.0W13–12UY
Sat 10/16Eastern Michigan vs Ball State+1.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Sat 10/23Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green-4.5W55–2449.5W55–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Eastern Michigan at Toledo+9.0W52–4954.5W52–49OY
Tue 11/9Eastern Michigan vs Ohio-6.0L26–3461.5L26–34UN
Tue 11/16Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W22–2166.0W22–21UY
Fri 11/26Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan+8.5L10–3164.0L10–31UN
Sat 12/18Eastern Michigan vs Liberty+9.5L20–5658.5L20–56ON
Wisconsin 2021 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Wisconsin vs Penn State-5.5L10–1648.5L10–16UN
Sat 9/11Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan-26.0W34–752.0W34–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/25Wisconsin vs Notre Dame-6.0L13–4143.5L13–41ON
Sat 10/2Wisconsin vs Michigan-2.0L17–3843.5L17–38ON
Sat 10/9Wisconsin at Illinois-12.5W24–042.0W24–0UY
Sat 10/16Wisconsin vs Army-14.0W20–1437.5W20–14UN
Sat 10/23Wisconsin at Purdue-3.5W30–1341.0W30–13OY
Sat 10/30Wisconsin vs Iowa-3.0W27–735.5W27–7UY
Sat 11/6Wisconsin at Rutgers-13.0W52–337.5W52–3OY
Sat 11/13Wisconsin vs Northwestern-26.0W35–741.5W35–7OY
Sat 11/20Wisconsin vs Nebraska-10.0W35–2843.5W35–28ON
Sat 11/27Wisconsin at Minnesota-7.0L13–2339.0L13–23UN
Thu 12/30Wisconsin vs Arizona State-8.5W20–1342.5W20–13UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Wisconsin PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wisconsin
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Eastern Michigan
+0.227
Wisconsin
+0.442
Wisconsin Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan
+0.366
Wisconsin
+0.485
Wisconsin Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan
0.143
Wisconsin
0.213
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wisconsin Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan
+7.103
Wisconsin
+7.171
Wisconsin Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan
+0.779
Wisconsin
+0.954
Wisconsin Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan
69.7
Wisconsin
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Eastern Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wisconsin Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Eastern Michigan
-8.5
Wisconsin
0.3
Offense Rating
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Wisconsin
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Eastern Michigan
18.7
Wisconsin
14.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Eastern Michigan #68
0.00
Wisconsin #103
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #104
0.00
Wisconsin #15
1.00
Eastern Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Eastern Michigan #1
97.0
Wisconsin #1
27.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #99
0.4
Wisconsin #11
31.9
Eastern Michigan +69.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Wisconsin
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wisconsin
96.9 — 0.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Wisconsin won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
32–52 (38%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Chris Creighton Yr 1 #1
DC Neal Neathery Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wisconsin
Paul Chryst #1
57–20 (74%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Joe Rudolph Yr 1 #1
DC Jim Leonhard Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself