Tue, Nov 2 2021
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium
Akron, OH
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Ball State✈ 213 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Akron,
while Game Control favors Ball State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Akron wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Ball State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ball State -20
O/U 58.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ball State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2021 Schedule
Ball State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Ball State vs Western Illinois | -31.0W31–21 | 58.5 | W31–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Ball State at Penn State | +23.0L13–44 | 58.0 | L13–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Ball State at Wyoming | +6.5L12–45 | 53.5 | L12–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Ball State vs Toledo | +4.5L12–22 | 56.5 | L12–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Ball State vs Army | +10.5W28–16 | 46.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +13.0W45–20 | 57.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | -1.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | -3.5L17–24 | 53.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Ball State at Akron | -20.0W31–25 | 58.0 | W31–25 | U | N |
| Wed 11/10 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | -3.0L29–30 | 59.5 | L29–30 | U | N |
| Wed 11/17 | Ball State vs Central Michigan | +2.5L17–37 | 57.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Ball State vs Buffalo | -6.0W20–3 | 59.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Ball State vs Georgia State | +6.0L20–51 | 52.5 | L20–51 | O | N |
Akron 2021 Schedule
Akron's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Akron at Auburn | +37.5L10–60 | 56.5 | L10–60 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Akron vs Temple | +6.5L24–45 | 51.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Akron vs Bryant | -14.0W35–14 | 49.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Akron at Ohio State | +48.5L7–59 | 66.5 | L7–59 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Akron vs Ohio | +10.0L17–34 | 55.0 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Akron at Bowling Green | +14.0W35–20 | 46.0 | W35–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Akron at Miami (OH) | +20.0L21–34 | 51.0 | L21–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Akron vs Buffalo | +13.5L10–45 | 58.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Akron vs Ball State | +20.0L25–31 | 58.0 | L25–31 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/9 | Akron at Western Michigan | +24.5L40–45 | 62.0 | L40–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Akron vs Kent State | +13.5L0–38 | 72.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Akron at Toledo | +28.5L14–49 | 57.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ball State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Akron Edge
Akron +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +20.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
23–36 (39%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin Lynch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyler Stockton
Yr 1
#1
Akron
Tom Arth #1
2–19 (10%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Tommy Zagorski
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Feeney
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓