Thu, Nov 11 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
·
Turf
·
23,595 cap
Ball State✈ 211 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Northern Illinois,
while Game Control favors Ball State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Northern Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Ball State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ball State -3
O/U 59.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Northern Illinois
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2021 Schedule
Ball State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Ball State vs Western Illinois | -31.0W31–21 | 58.5 | W31–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Ball State at Penn State | +23.0L13–44 | 58.0 | L13–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Ball State at Wyoming | +6.5L12–45 | 53.5 | L12–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Ball State vs Toledo | +4.5L12–22 | 56.5 | L12–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Ball State vs Army | +10.5W28–16 | 46.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +13.0W45–20 | 57.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | -1.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | -3.5L17–24 | 53.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Ball State at Akron | -20.0W31–25 | 58.0 | W31–25 | U | N |
| Wed 11/10 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | -3.0L29–30 | 59.5 | L29–30 | U | N |
| Wed 11/17 | Ball State vs Central Michigan | +2.5L17–37 | 57.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Ball State vs Buffalo | -6.0W20–3 | 59.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Ball State vs Georgia State | +6.0L20–51 | 52.5 | L20–51 | O | N |
Northern Illinois 2021 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech | +19.0W22–21 | 57.0 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Northern Illinois vs Wyoming | +7.0L43–50 | 44.0 | L43–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Northern Illinois at Michigan | +27.5L10–63 | 54.5 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Northern Illinois vs Maine | -21.5W41–14 | 62.0 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan | +0.0W27–20 | 62.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +13.0W22–20 | 51.5 | W22–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green | -9.0W34–26 | 44.5 | W34–26 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | +6.0W39–38 | 56.0 | W39–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Northern Illinois at Kent State | +3.5L47–52 | 72.0 | L47–52 | O | N |
| Wed 11/10 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | +3.0W30–29 | 59.5 | W30–29 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/17 | Northern Illinois at Buffalo | -2.0W33–27 | 59.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/23 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | +6.5L21–42 | 60.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Northern Illinois vs Kent State | +3.5W41–23 | 75.5 | W41–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina | +11.0L41–47 | 63.0 | L41–47 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +7.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ball State
12.2 — 68.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Northern Illinois won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
23–36 (39%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin Lynch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyler Stockton
Yr 1
#1
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
6–15 (29%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Eric Eidsness
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Jackson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓