Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 War Memorial Stadium
Laramie, WY
·
Turf
·
29,181 cap
Ball State✈ 1,054 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wyoming
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wyoming entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Wyoming wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Wyoming wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wyoming -6.5
O/U 53.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wyoming
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2021 Schedule
Ball State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Ball State vs Western Illinois | -31.0W31–21 | 58.5 | W31–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Ball State at Penn State | +23.0L13–44 | 58.0 | L13–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Ball State at Wyoming | +6.5L12–45 | 53.5 | L12–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Ball State vs Toledo | +4.5L12–22 | 56.5 | L12–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Ball State vs Army | +10.5W28–16 | 46.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +13.0W45–20 | 57.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | -1.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | -3.5L17–24 | 53.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Ball State at Akron | -20.0W31–25 | 58.0 | W31–25 | U | N |
| Wed 11/10 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | -3.0L29–30 | 59.5 | L29–30 | U | N |
| Wed 11/17 | Ball State vs Central Michigan | +2.5L17–37 | 57.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Ball State vs Buffalo | -6.0W20–3 | 59.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Ball State vs Georgia State | +6.0L20–51 | 52.5 | L20–51 | O | N |
Wyoming 2021 Schedule
Wyoming's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Wyoming vs Montana State | -19.0W19–16 | 45.0 | W19–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wyoming at Northern Illinois | -7.0W50–43 | 44.0 | W50–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wyoming vs Ball State | -6.5W45–12 | 53.5 | W45–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Wyoming at UConn | -31.5W24–22 | 53.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Wyoming at Air Force | +5.5L14–24 | 46.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Wyoming vs Fresno State | +3.0L0–17 | 53.5 | L0–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Wyoming vs New Mexico | -20.0L3–14 | 41.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Wyoming at San José State | +3.0L21–27 | 40.0 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Wyoming vs Colorado State | +3.0W31–17 | 41.5 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/12 | Wyoming at Boise State | +14.0L13–23 | 49.0 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wyoming at Utah State | +6.0W44–17 | 52.0 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Wyoming vs Hawai'i | -13.0L14–38 | 48.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Tue 12/21 | Wyoming vs Kent State | -3.0W52–38 | 61.0 | W52–38 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wyoming
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +12.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wyoming
93.8 — 3.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wyoming won by 33
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wyoming with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
23–36 (39%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin Lynch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyler Stockton
Yr 1
#1
Wyoming
Craig Bohl #1
41–44 (48%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Tim Polasek
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Sawvel
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓